Last month, I wrote a blog entry about the TV show Battlestar Galactica. To update, I rapidly fell out of love with the show for many reasons and am struggling to just finish the first season.
The last thought-provoking episode I watched was entitled “33,” in which the hodgepodge human space fleet finds itself mercilessly pursued by the machine Cylon fleet, with no more than 33 minutes between attempted Cylon attacks. At the start of the episode, it is made clear that the pattern of furious engagement has been going on for five day straight, and the human crewmembers are fraying from lack of sleep, whereas the Cylons are completely unfazed.
Not needing to sleep is a real, crucial advantage that intelligent machines will have over humans in the future. For example, autonomous warplanes could fly missions around the clock, only stopping to reload their weapons, refuel, or get repaired. As a result, a fleet of autonomous warplanes could, at any given moment, put a greater fraction of its planes in the air than an identically sized fleet of human-piloted warplanes, since at any given moment, some fraction of the human pilots need to be sleeping. The readiness gap would become a chasm over the course of a sustained air campaign like the Battle of Britain as the effects of poor sleep and overwork added up on the human side.
Recently, two American warships–the USS Fitzgerald and the USS McCain–collided with merchant ships during patrols with fatal results, and while the investigations of both incidents are ongoing, it’s likely that overwork and lack of sleep were causal factors. Automated warships wouldn’t have had such problems.
Outside of the military context, not having to sleep will enormously advantage intelligent machines since it will let them get more work done each day, and hence to earn more money. Consider a future scenario where intelligent robots exist, but are no smarter than average humans. Even with that important aspect of the playing field leveled, the robots would be vastly superior workers and would take over most or all of the economy. Without the need to sleep, eat or do recreational stuff, they could just stay at work 24/7. That’s equivalent to 168 hours of work per week, which means one robot of average intelligence could replace four humans who work 40 hours per week.
And actually, it’s even worse than that once you factor in all the time a typical human worker spends at lunch, taking smoke breaks, resting, or doing nonsense during a 40 hour “work” week. A conservative estimate is that 50% of time is wasted in a typical American workplace. So one robot that stayed on-task could actually replace EIGHT humans.
And if the robot just stays at work all the time, that means it doesn’t need an apartment, house, or car, which means a massive cut in its personal expenses and way more disposable income. Aging, illness, and disability wouldn’t be things it would have to worry about, so it wouldn’t spend any money on health or dental insurance, nor would it lock up any of its pay in long-term retirement plans. The robot’s disposable income would be massive compared to a human making the same salary.
As a result, jobs and money would become concentrated in the hands of machines and business owners, and human workers would get shafted. And remember, I’m not even assuming that the robots will be smarter than humans–I’m pointing out that they could quickly muscle humans out of the job market by banking on their other inherent advantages, notably their ability to function without sleep. Even robots that are only as smart as dumb humans will be a major threat.
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