Interesting articles, January 2021

Donald Trump completed one term of office as U.S. President this month, and the position was transferred to Joe Biden. Again, this blog is NOT about partisan politics, and as a general rule I don’t mention it, but this is a rare instance where it’s worth listing the noteworthy failed predictions about the Trump presidency:

  1. “I think he will be in jail within a year.”
    –Malcolm Gladwell, November 6, 2016
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malcolm-gladwell-us-election-the-national-trump-clinton-1.3838449
  2. “Trump’s presidency is effectively over. Would be amazed if he survives till end of the year. More likely resigns by fall, if not sooner.”
    –Tony Schwartz (ghostwriter of Trump: The Art of the Deal turned enemy of Trump), August 16, 2017
    https://twitter.com/tonyschwartz/status/897900928023412736
  3. “I don’t think he’s going to make it till the end of the year. I think he can’t take the ridicule. I think he’ll resign.”
    –Alec Baldwin, August 7, 2017
    http://www.vulture.com/2017/08/alec-baldwin-trump-impersonation-snl.html
  4. “He’ll be lucky if all we do is impeach him. I predict in 6 months Trump will be holed up in the Ecuadorian embassy.”
    –John Aravosis, February 14, 2017
    https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/831740494610837509
  5. “Will Trump complete his four-year term? The odds at this point are that he won’t. What are the options for exactly how his term might end early? There are five Oval Office exit paths: impeachment, use of the 25th Amendment, death by natural causes, assassination and resignation.”
    –Mike Purdy, May 19, 2017
    http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/334238-trump-wont-make-it-four-years-heres-how-he-might
  6. “This tight burst of historic f**k-ups on the part of Mr. Trump in just his first 110 days in office has forced me to change my predicted date of his voluntary resignation from August 18th to July 15th.”
    –Allan Ishac, May 17, 2017
    https://medium.com/@allanishac/my-prediction-that-trump-will-resign-by-august-18th-has-been-revised-to-july-15th-bdcd75e2276
  7. “He will not finish his first term…I would be very surprised if he made it to 18 months…my best guess is within six months.”
    –Cenk Uygur, August 16, 2017
    https://youtu.be/ScgVbT_fry0
  8. “I’ve been saying this from day one of his presidency but apparently most people still don’t get it – there is no way Donald Trump finishes his first term. Mark my words: He is out of office by 2019. He is not bright enough to be able to get himself out of the trouble he is in.”
    –Cenk Uygur, December 22, 2018
    https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1076600316286590976
  9. “I do not think the President will survive this term…I think the amount of heat that is going to come down on Mr. Trump in connection with his personal attorney of ten years [Michael Cohen] turning on him and rolling on him will be insurmountable, and I think his only exit, in an effort to save whatever face he may have left at that time, will be to resign the office.”
    –Michael Avenatti, April 23, 2018
    https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/stormy-daniels-lawyer-explains-why-he-thinks-trump-will-resign-his-term
  10. “I think it’s just going to get so tight and it’s going to close in and then everybody is going to be indicted around this president, and then he is going to realize he is probably next on the list. And I think he is going to come up with an excuse like ‘somebody is trying to kill Barron, and so I’m going to resign.”
    –Congresswoman Frederica Wilson (Florida), November 3, 2017
    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rep-wilson-predicts-trump-will-pretend-somebody-trying-kill-barron-resign/
  11. “In any case, it seems likely that Donald Trump will be leaving the Presidency at some point, likely between the 31 days of William Henry Harrison in 1841 (dying of pneumonia) and the 199 days of James A. Garfield in 1881 (dying of an assassin’s bullet after 79 days of terrible suffering and medical malpractice). At the most, it certainly seems likely, even if dragged out, that Trump will not last 16 months and 5 days, as occurred with Zachary Taylor in 1850 (dying of a digestive ailment). The Pence Presidency seems inevitable.”
    –Presidential historian Ronald L. Feinman, February 18, 2017
    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/presidential-historian-predicts-trumps-term-will-last-less-than-200-days-the-second-shortest-ever/
  12. “For a while now, I have thought the Trump presidency would end suddenly…For weeks now I have been anticipating that Trump’s last day in office will dawn like all the others, and then around dinnertime it will suddenly break that he is about to resign…I don’t know if that’s next Tuesday or next year, but I think whenever it is, that is what it will feel like.”
    –Keith Olbermann, August 23, 2017
    http://www.newsweek.com/trump-resign-russia-olbermann-president-654209
  13. “By the time we get to 2020, Donald Trump may not even be President. In fact, he may not even be a free person.”
    –Elizabeth Warren, February 11, 2019
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/10/politics/elizabeth-warren-donald-trump/index.html
  14. “He’s gonna drop out of the race because it’s gonna become very clear. Okay, it’ll be March of 2020. He’ll likely drop out by March of 2020. It’s gonna become very clear that it’s impossible for him to win.”
    –Anthony Scaramucci, August 16, 2019
    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/anthony-scaramucci-interview-trump
  15. “He can preemptively pardon individuals, and the vast majority of legal scholars have indicated that he cannot pardon himself…I suspect at some point in time he will step down and allow the vice president to pardon him.”
    –New York Attorney General Letitia James, December 8, 2020
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/529339-new-york-attorney-general-predicts-trump-will-step-down-allow-pence

There’s no justification for U.S. troops to be in Syria anymore.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2021-01-25/us-strategy-syria-has-failed

China’s stealth fighter is ten years old.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/38655/ten-years-ago-today-chinas-j-20-stealth-fighter-first-flew-a-two-seater-could-be-next

China didn’t invade Taiwan in 2020, as Deng Yuwen predicted.
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2126541/china-planning-take-taiwan-force-2020

U.S. power didn’t collapse in 2020, as Johan Galtung predicted.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/d7ykxx/us-power-will-decline-under-trump-says-futurist-who-predicted-soviet-collapse

Bonus: The U.S. did not have a Soviet-style collapse in 2010 as Igor Panarin predicted.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/06/map-of-the-day-ex-kgb-analyst-predicts-balkanization-of-us/58945/

Ballistic computers have shrunk to the sizes of rifle scopes.
‘The [L3Harris NGSW-FC scope] features a magnified direct-view optic with a digital reticle, a laser rangefinder, a ballistic computer, and environmental sensors capable of measuring air pressure and temperature.’
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/l3harris-unveils-next-generation-squad-weapon-fire-control-system

The bricks of explosive-reactive armor typically seen attached to the hulls of Soviet/Russian tanks have powerful “back-blasts” that can dent the thinner metal armor of vehicles like the BMP-series inward.
https://thedeaddistrict.blogspot.com/2021/01/bmp-2-with-k-1-era.html

Here’s an interesting tour of an old Soviet T-54 tank. Driving that thing looks like a rough job.
https://youtu.be/SCaBLjg6No0

Azerbaijan has towed several destroyed Armenian tanks to Baku to be used as exhibits in a soon-to-be-built war museum.
https://thedeaddistrict.blogspot.com/2021/01/in-baku-preparations-begin-for.html

Here are the fascinating recollections of a career U.S. Navy sailor about life at sea, improvements in naval technology, and how the organization has changed (for better and worse).
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/13038/making-steam-high-seas-tales-and-commentary-on-todays-navy-from-a-chief-engineer

China has repurposed old artillery pieces to be forest fire extinguishers.
http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201904/04/WS5ca554fca3104842260b456c.html

LED walls are made up of many smaller LED panels arranged in a grid to form one, giant display of arbitrary size. I just saw one of them in an airport and was impressed. This might become common in homes starting in 10 years as prices drop and people demand TVs that would be too big to fit through the front doors of their houses if made of one, rigid screen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQxa8VruNJg&feature=emb_title

Here’s an interesting desalination plant. It uses solar power, pumps, a 90-meter tall hill, and reverse osmosis to make drinking water from seawater.
https://youtu.be/B4irlTMk_Os

An “acoustic resonator” is a piezoelectric device that converts noise into electricity. It can also do the reverse. The resonators could be placed underwater, where they would use the ocean’s ambient noises to recharge their batteries, and use that power to send their own sound-based data signals to other nearby devices.
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/10/17/how-to-send-underwater-messages-without-batteries

“Fulgurites” are remarkable-looking minerals formed when lightning strikes and melts wet sand.
http://www.geologyin.com/2014/06/amazing-fulgurites.html

Here’s a big roundup of predictions for the 2020s by a bright guy I’ve never heard of. I respect his thoroughness, though I need to more time to decide if I agree with him.
https://elidourado.com/blog/notes-on-technology-2020s/

Were the earliest plants purple instead of green? Are there alien planets covered in purple plants?
‘Because retinal is a simpler molecule than chlorophyll, then it could be more commonly found in life in the Universe…’
https://astrobiology.nasa.gov/news/was-life-on-the-early-earth-purple

Nobel Prizewinner Paul Cruzen died. He was a pioneer in global warming research, and later advocated geoengineering as a way to keep the phenomenon from getting out of control.
https://www.mpic.de/4677594/trauer-um-paul-crutzen

The Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis might be wrong.
‘On the other side of the debate are those who say that although language is indeed linked with cognition, it derives from thought, rather than preceding it. You can certainly think about things that you have no labels for, they point out, or you would be unable to learn new words. Supposedly “untranslatable” words from other tongues—which seem to suggest that without the right language, comprehension is impossible—are not really inscrutable; they can usually be explained in longer expressions. One-word labels are not the sole way to grasp things.’
https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2020/10/15/does-naming-a-thing-help-you-understand-it

Autonomous vehicles only designed to transport cargo could look very different from normal cars, as they wouldn’t need seats or safety features to protect humans during crashes. For those same reasons, they could be lighter and cheaper than regular cars.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-autonomous-safety-idUSKBN29J29Z

“AI video compression” sharply reduces the amount of data needed for video calls. The means by which this is accomplished is very interesting, and has other uses.
https://youtu.be/NqmMnjJ6GEg

Microsoft has patented a chatbot that would be able to mimic dead people after analyzing their “images, voice data, social media posts, electronic messages” and other data. I’ve predicted that this kind of technology will get advanced enough to let people achieve “digital immortality” during the 2030s.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/microsoft-chatbot-patent-dead-b1789979.html

OpenAI’s latest boundary-pushing computer program is “Dall-E,” which can generate clear drawings based on user-submitted written descriptions of what they should look like.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55559463

Algorithms that can edit video footage are getting frighteningly advanced. Objects, including moving objects like humans and cars, can be easily deleted from video footage without anything looking amiss. Whatever was behind them is filled in.
https://youtu.be/86QU7_SF16Q

Most of the world’s top AI researchers go to universities in the U.S. and then get jobs there. China produces the most top AI researchers of any country (unsurprising given its large population), but few of them stay there.
https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/the-global-ai-talent-tracker/

This blog discusses how overregulation and risk-aversion have stifled innovation and cost-saving measures in the aviation industry.
https://elidourado.com/blog/why-aviation-innovation-matters/

Richard Branson’s Virgin company launched small satellites into space. A Boeing 747 flew to high altitude, and then dropped a space rocket from its belly, which ignited and flew into orbit.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/richard-bransons-virgin-orbit-launches-rocket-from-under-boeing-747s-wing/

Space-X launched 143 satellites using just one space rocket–a new record.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55775977

‘Star lifting is any of several hypothetical processes by which a sufficiently advanced civilization…could remove a substantial portion of a star’s matter which can then be re-purposed, while possibly optimizing the star’s energy output and lifespan at the same time.’
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Star_lifting

“Diamond plants” exist.
https://newatlas.com/science/carbon-diamond-stable-highest-pressure/

Tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s richest person.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55578403

Scientists have identified the types of cells that let some animals sense magnetic fields, and have observed them doing that for the first time. I think posthumans will have this extra sense.
“[We’ve] observed a purely quantum mechanical process affecting chemical activity at the cellular level.”
https://newatlas.com/biology/live-cells-respond-magnetic-fields/

There’s no scientific evidence that the food additive monosodium glutamate (MSG) hurts human health. The public health panic over MSG was spawned by a flawed study. In spite of this, Americans still believe it is dangerous.
https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/msg-isnt-bad-for-you-according-to-science

The FDA just approved the first long-term HIV drug. It manages the virus’ effects and only needs to be injected once a month into patients. It could replace daily doses of antiretroviral pills. Early HIV drugs had to be taken multiple times per day.
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-extended-release-injectable-drug-regimen-adults-living-hiv

Machine learning can optimize factories by studying ultra hi-res photos of their products at various stages in the manufacturing process. Something like a screw missing from a circuit board would be seen by the computer before the board left the building.
https://youtu.be/MOh55-TF6LQ

Are Silicon Valley’s days as the world’s tech hub over? Mandatory teleworking imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic has worked out better than many tech workers and founders expected, and they will push to make the arrangements permanent, leading many to leave the Bay Area for cheaper locales.
https://blog.initialized.com/2021/01/data-post-pandemic-silicon-valley-isnt-a-place/

We have no idea how many people COVID-19 has killed in sub-Saharan Africa.
‘In 2017, only 10 percent of deaths were registered in Nigeria, by far Africa’s biggest country by population — down from 13.5 percent a decade before. In other African countries, like Niger, the percentage is even lower.’
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/02/world/africa/africa-coronavirus-deaths-underreporting.html

In September, the University of Washington COVID-19 model (IHME) predicted 410,000 Americans would be dead by January 1:
‘Jha says his disagreement with IHME’s methodology amounts to much more than a technical debate. “The problem here is if we come in at 250,000 or 300,000 dead [by year’s end in the United States] — which is still just enormously awful — political leaders are going to be able to do a victory dance and say, ‘Look, we were supposed to have 400,000 deaths. And because of all the great stuff we did, only 300,000 Americans died.'” says Jha.’
The actual outcome didn’t satisfy anyone. The U.S. death toll hit 354,000 by the January 1 deadline, which made both the IHME and the skeptics like Jha all look dumb. At the same time, no politicians did a victory dance.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/09/04/909783162/new-global-coronavirus-death-forecast-is-chilling-and-controversial

Mutant versions of COVID-19 have emerged in Britain and South Africa. They spread faster among people, and as such will kill higher numbers of people overall, even if they are not more lethal to any individual than the older strains of the virus.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/04/variants-and-vaccines

The COVID-19 vaccines are probably also less effective against the South African strain.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data

There remains a small, but real chance that COVID-19 is a Chinese-made biological weapon that leaked from one of their labs.
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/a-real-investigation-into-the-origins-of-covid/

Is the ocean the ideal place for AI to live?

Project Natick, Vessel retrieval Stromness, Orkney. Microsoft – Tuesday 7th to Wednesday 15th of July 2020

Recently, I read about Microsoft’s “Project Natick,” in which the company made a data server in an airtight cylinder the size of a shipping container, lowered to the seafloor (117 feet deep) off the coast of Scotland, and monitored its performance for two years. At the end of the experiment, Microsoft found that the unit performed better than comparable datacenters on land. It turns out that submersible datacenters can more efficiently rid themselves of waste heat because water is a better conductor than air, and because temperatures are generally colder and much more consistent underwater than they are on the surface. And given the small, sealed nature of the cylinders, it is also possible to control their atmospheric contents, and to pump out all the oxygen, leaving the computer servers awash in pure, nitrogen gas. This lowers malfunction rates since oxygen is corrosive to computer chips. 

The project’s success has encouraged Microsoft to plan more elaborate experiments with submersible datacenters, which might culminate in profitable, commercial operations. It also got me thinking that, in the future, artificially intelligent machines (AIs) might prefer living on the high seas to living on land. This might in fact be the best arrangement for achieving harmony between intelligent machines, humans, and the environment. 

Map showing national territorial sea boundaries. Dark blue = under national ownership. Light blue = international waters.

A longstanding worry about AI is that it will wage war on humans for dominance of the planet: A map of the world will show that every scrap of land except Antarctica has been claimed by one human country or another, so how could machines ever carve out a nation of their own other than through military conquest? This view overlooks the fact that there remain vast expanses of ocean that are owned by no one. AIs that didn’t want to live under human laws could get ships, submarines and other types of watercraft, and move to international waters.

Floating wind turbines can be towed to a desired location and then tethered to the sea floor.

While permanently living at sea would be an impoverished, resource-scarce, and undesirable lifestyle for humans, it would suit AIs well. The lack of fresh water would be no bother since they wouldn’t need to drink, nor would the forced dependence on seafood (and the variable quantity and quality thereof) since they wouldn’t need to eat. The only nourishment AIs would need is electricity, which they could easily obtain at sea using solar panels, floating wind turbines, or ocean thermal energy conversion.

Out of those energy sources, I think the most practical will be solar power. By the time AIs exist and are ready to make their own communities at sea, solar panels will be much cheaper, better, and thinner than they are now, whereas wind turbines will still be massive, expensive and complex, and ocean thermal energy converters even more so. That leads us to the next question: which parts of the ocean get the most sunlight?

Average cloud cover map. Counterintuitively, red = cloudy, and blue = clear skies.

The map shows that the stretches of ocean between the Tropics get the most sunlight (dark blue shaded), while large areas in the temperate and subarctic zones are very cloudy (orange shaded). If we roughly overlay this map with the one showing national territorial waters, we see that the eastern Pacific between the Galapagos Islands and Easter Island, is an ideal location for AI to live, along with a large region of the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and Australia, and patches of the North and South Atlantic between Latin America and Africa.

However, it must be remembered that oceanic AI communities could still be threatening to humans if they occupied parts of the ocean rich in fish that we need to eat. That means another map overlay is necessary, this time relating to global fish stocks.

Global fisheries map. Green = presence of large numbers of fish.
Note that the map’s color-coding scheme measures human fishing intensity in orders of magnitude. Yellow and light green areas rarely get fishing boat visits.

Eyeballing those two maps, the ideal locations for floating AI communities shrink a little to make way for human fishing activity, but they don’t disappear. Huge patches of ocean, each measuring hundreds of thousands of square miles big, meet the three key criteria (in international waters, receive high levels of sunlight, do not occupy places humans need to access for food), and can be found in the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans.

But even if they had their freedom and a peaceful coexistence with land-based humans, what would AIs do in the middle of the oceans? What kind of economy could they possibly build? How would they sustain themselves, let alone grow in number? Answers that come to mind are: exploiting the natural resources of the sea and seafloor, and providing data-related services to humans.

The machines could sustainably harvest whatever sea life there was in their relatively barren regions of dominance and ship it to coastal seafood markets run by humans. They could also mine the minerals and metals on and under the seafloors beneath their floating communities and transport it by boat to the continents for sale to humans. In the longer term, machines might even find it profitable to build their own floating factories to manufacture finished goods for export. The data-related services would include a wide variety of things, from web hosting to database management to real-time data processing (reviewing all the digital products that Amazon Web Service provides is a good start to grasping what will be possible). Ocean-based machine communities would trade goods and services with humans in exchange for whatever they couldn’t obtain by themselves at sea, like new ships and computer servers that they could use to replace older ones and to expand their floating communities.

A simple ship like this could be used to collect solar power.

What exactly would the machines’ sea vessels look like, how big would they be, what features would they have, and how would they configure to form communities (or even cities)? It’s impossible to give specific answers at this point, but the vessels would surely vary in shape, accoutrements and size to reflect their functions, just as is the case for modern watercraft. For example, vessels meant to collect solar power would probably look like simple barges or low oil rigs. Ships dedicated to undersea mining and fishing would look like those use by humans, but with smaller or omitted superstructures. Cranes, hoses, ropes, and cables would be ubiquitous on the vessels since they’d be needed to transfer physical materials, fuel, and electricity between them, and to lash themselves together to form ship agglomerations of varying sizes.

Ships can attach to one another at sea to trade fuel and cargo.

The great danger to machine seasteads would be rough seas, which could capsize their vessels and bang them into each other with fatal force. For that reason, the ability to rapidly attach and detach from neighboring craft in the seastead will be vital, and each will need independent propulsion to prevent collisions. The ability to submerge would also provide an escape, since sea currents get less turbulent with depth. At 30 meters deep, the force of a raging storm that is producing large waves on the surface can barely be felt. It’s not much of a technical challenge to make vessels that can dive that deep, considering that modern military submarines can easily dive to depths greater than 200 meters. The ability to submerge would also be a useful defense against military attack.

Putting all of these considerations together, I can envision the basic form of a machine seastead. Starting at the ocean floor, we see a dark, barren expanse of sand, rocks, and gentle hills. There is no coral and very few fish. This is the aquatic equivalent of a desert, making it the perfect home for artificial life forms that don’t want to damage sensitive ecosystems.

Concept illustration for seafloor mining.

Various points on the seafloor glow with artificial white light, partly obscured by swirling clouds of sand. A closer inspection reveals them to be mining sites, where teams of wheeled machines and small submarines hovering low dig into the ground and sift through loose sand and rock to extract valuable metals and minerals. Near each site are bright-colored, vertical cables stretching from the seafloor upward, where they vanish into the darkness. The cables connect to surface ships and supply electricity and data to the mining machines far below. The mining machines can also use some of the cables to be hoisted up and down from the surface when needed.

An underwater data cable

A short distance from the mining sites, we see another cable, this time lying horizontally across the seafloor, and so long that it disappears into the darkness in both directions. It’s an ultra high-speed data cable that connects the machines to the continents thousands of miles away, which humans still dominate. At many points along the data cable’s length, we see thinner cables branching off from it perpendicularly and vertically, going towards the surface.

As we float upwards, the seafloor fades from view. The vertical cables are the only features visible for some time. The darkness finally yields to sunlight, at first very dim and then growing brighter as we near the surface. At a depth of 50 meters, we encounter many small submarines slightly bigger than shipping containers. They are full of powerful computer servers which jointly comprise a larger, artificially intelligent machine mind in the same way that the neurons make up your brain and support its consciousness. The subs usually stay at this depth, where the water is always cold and calm. Here they can efficiently radiate heat from their servers and be safe from forces that would suddenly jostle them and break their computer parts. Data cables from below plug into them, as do power cables from above. They are can control their own buoyancy, but typically use tethers to surface ships or the seafloor to stay in place. In emergencies, they can detach from one or both and move independently.

Breaking the surface, a vast fleet of vessels is visible, stretching from one end of the horizon to the other. Most of them are simple, medium-sized ships with flat, nearly featureless top decks covered in black solar panels. In place of a boxy superstructure, the typical “solar ship” has some antennae, satellite dishes, a short radar tower, and a crane all clustered at the stern end of its deck. These and the other ships in the fleet are lined with black rubber bumpers, some of which are simply large tires lashed to their sides. Few of the ship look high-tech or impressive in any way.

A floating dry dock with a ship inside of it.

A small percentage of the seasteading fleet is made up of different types of vessels. There is a large, floating dry dock that has raised a solar ship out of the water for maintenance. On board, robots of various shapes and sizes scrape barnacles off the latter’s hull and install new solar panels. Farther away, a vessel resembling an oil tanker uses one of its cranes to lift a load of rocks from the seafloor and to dump them into a open trapdoor on its top deck. The rocks are then mechanically and chemically processed by machines, separating valuable, pure metals from slag materials. The former will be put on merchant ships and sent to human port cities for sale, while the latter will be lowered back to the seafloor for safe disposal in a nearby geological subduction zone. The mineral processing ship is also one of the relative few that can’t submerge, meaning it has to stay on the surface during storms and carefully steer through the big waves. During such occasions, it at least has generous room for maneuver since most of the seasteading fleet sinks deep enough to not be a collision risk.

A fractal pattern

But because the weather is calm and sunny now, many of the ships in the fleet are tied to each other. They use flexible ropes for this, which can stretch and bend as the ships bob in the waves. Data and power cables are also enmeshed with the ropes, letting ships share those resources. From up in the sky, we can look down and see how the vessels are configured, and what the seastead as a whole looks like. The connections are irregular, and give the seastead an organic-looking and perhaps “fractal” shape. If we look closely, we can see the movement of individual vessels as they sever and form connections with neighbors, slowly move within the group, and reorient themselves when necessary. Ships use open channels that are free of connected vessels to move through the seastead quickly. Some vessels slowly sink beneath the surface and disappear, while others rise from the dark blue sea. The machine seastead is a dynamic, artificial superorganism that does no harm to humans or animals and gets all its energy from clean sources.

At high altitudes, we can see that the seastead covers as much area as a medium-sized human country like France or Pakistan. Maybe it can even be seen from space as a dark, irregular shape on the ocean.

Links:

  1. Details of Microsoft’s Project Natick
    https://news.microsoft.com/innovation-stories/project-natick-underwater-datacenter/
  2. More on ocean thermal energy conversion. Basically, it takes advantage of the temperature difference of seawater at different depths to generate electricity.
    https://www.britannica.com/technology/ocean-thermal-energy-conversion
  3. The forces of ocean waves diminish as you dive deeper into the sea. At 50 meters deep, even a raging surface storm can barely be felt.
    https://www.technology.org/2019/06/26/can-a-submarine-avoid-a-storm-by-sailing-under-it-how-deep-does-it-have-to-go-to-not-be-bothered-by-waves/

My future predictions (2021 iteration)

If it’s January, it means it’s time for me to update my big list of future predictions! I used the 2020 version of this document as a template, and made edits to it as needed. For the sake of transparency, I’ve indicated recently added content by bolding it, and have indicated deleted or moved content with strikethrough.

Like any futurist worth his salt, I’m going to put my credibility on the line by publishing a list of my future predictions. I won’t modify or delete this particular blog entry once it is published, and if my thinking about anything on the list changes, I’ll instead create a new, revised blog entry. Furthermore, as the deadlines for my predictions pass, I’ll reexamine them.

I’ve broken down my predictions by the decade. Any prediction listed under a specific decade will happen by the end of that decade, unless I specify some other date (e.g. – “X will happen early in this decade.”).

2020s

  • Better, cheaper solar panels and batteries (for grid power storage and cars) will make clean energy as cheap and as reliable as fossil fuel power for entire regions of the world, including some temperate zones. As cost “tipping points” are reached, it will make financial sense for tens of millions of private homeowners and electricity utility companies to install solar panels on their rooftops and on ground arrays, respectively. This will be the case even after government clean energy subsidies are inevitably retracted. However, a 100% transition to clean energy won’t finish in rich countries until the middle of the century, and poor countries will use dirty energy well into the second half of the century.
  • Fracking and the exploitation of tar sands in the U.S. and Canada will together ensure growth in global oil production until around 2030, at which time the installed base of clean energy and batteries will be big enough to take up the slack. There will be no global energy crisis.
  • This will be a bad decade for Russia as its overall population shrinks, its dependency ratio rises, and as low fossil fuel prices and sanctions keep hurting its economy. Russia will fall farther behind the U.S., China, and other leading countries in terms of economic, military, and technological might.
  • China’s GDP will surpass America’s, India’s population will surpass China’s, and China will never claim the glorious title of being both the richest and most populous country.
  • Improvements to smartphone cameras, mirrorless cameras, and perhaps light-field cameras will make D-SLRs obsolete. 
  • Augmented reality (AR) glasses that are much cheaper and better than the original Google Glass will make their market debuts and will find success in niche applications.
  • Virtual reality (VR) gaming will go mainstream as the devices get better and cheaper. It will stop being the sole domain of hardcore gamers willing to spend over $1,000 on hardware.
  • Vastly improved VR goggles with better graphics and no need to be plugged into desktop PCs will hit the market. They won’t display perfectly lifelike footage, but they will be much better than what we have today, and portable. 
  • “Full-immersion” audiovisual VR will be commercially available by the end of the decade. These VR devices will be capable of displaying video that is visually indistinguishable from real reality: They will have display resolutions (at least 60 pixels per degree of field of view), refresh rates, head tracking sensitivities, and wide fields of view (210 degrees wide by 150 degrees high) that together deliver a visual experience that matches or exceeds the limits of human vision. These high-end goggles won’t be truly “portable” devices because their high processing and energy requirements will probably make them bulky, give them only a few hours of battery life (or maybe none at all), or even require them to be plugged into another computer. Moreover, the tactile, olfactory, and physical movement/interaction aspects of the experience will remain underdeveloped.
  • “Deepfake” pornography will reach new levels of sophistication and perversion as it becomes possible to seamlessly graft the heads of real people onto still photos and videos of nude bodies that closely match the physiques of the actual people. New technology for doing this will let amateurs make high-quality deepfakes, meaning any person could be targeted. It will even become possible to wear AR glasses that interpolate nude, virtual bodies over the bodies real people in the wearer’s field of view to provide a sort of fake “X-ray-vision.” The AR glasses could also be used to apply other types of visual filters that degraded real people within the field of view.
  • LED light bulbs will become as cheap as CFL and even incandescent bulbs. It won’t make economic sense NOT to buy LEDs, and they will establish market dominance.
  • “Smart home”/”Wired home” technology will become mature and widespread in developed countries.
  • Video gaming will dispense with physical media, and games will be completely streamed from the internet or digitally downloaded. Business that exist just to sell game discs (Gamestop) will shut down.
  • Instead of a typical home entertainment system having a whole bunch of media discs, different media players and cable boxes, there will be one small, multipurpose box that, among other things, boosts WiFi to ensure the TV and all nearby devices can get signals at multi-Gb/s speeds.
  • Self-driving vehicles will start hitting the roads in large numbers in rich countries. The vehicles won’t drive as efficiently as humans (a lot of hesitation and slowing down for little or no reason), but they’ll be as safe as human drivers. Long-haul trucks that ply simple highway routes will be the first category of vehicles to be fully automated. The transition will be heralded by a big company like Wal-Mart buying 5,000 self-driving tractor trailers to move goods between its distribution centers and stores. Last-mile delivery–involving weaving through side streets, cities and neighborhoods, and physically carrying packages to peoples’ doors–won’t be automated until after this decade. Self-driving, privately owned passenger cars will stay few in number and will be owned by technophiles, rich people, and taxi cab companies.
  • Thanks to improvements in battery energy density and cost, and in fast-charging technology, electric cars will become cost-competitive with gas-powered cars this decade without government subsidies, leading to their rapid adoption. Electric cars are mechanically simpler and more reliable than gas-powered ones, which will hurt the car repair industry. Many gas stations will also go bankrupt or convert to fast charging stations.
  • Quality of life for people living and working in cities and near highways will improve as more drivers switch to quieter, emissionless electric vehicles. The noise reduction will be greatest in cities and suburbs where traffic moves slowly: https://cleantechnica.com/2016/06/05/will-electric-cars-make-traffic-quieter-yes-no/
  • Most new power equipment will be battery-powered, so machines like lawn mowers, leaf blowers, and chainsaws will be much quieter and less polluting than they are today. Batteries will be energy-dense enough to compete with gasoline in these use cases, and differences in overall equipment weight and running time will be insignificant. The notion of a neighbor shattering your sense of peace and quiet with loud yard work will get increasingly alien. 
  • A machine will pass the Turing Test by the end of this decade. The milestone will attract enormous amounts of attention and will lead to several retests, some of which the machine will fail, proving that it lacks the full range of human intelligence. It will lead to debate over the Turing Test’s validity as a measure of true intelligence (Ray Kurzweil actually talked about this phenomenon of “moving the goalposts” whenever we think about how smart computers are), and many AI experts will point out the existence of decades-long skepticism in the Turing Test in their community.
  • The best AIs circa 2029 won’t be able to understand and upgrade their own source codes. They will still be narrow AIs, albeit an order of magnitude better than the ones we have today.
  • Machines will become better than humans at the vast majority of computer, card, and board games. The only exceptions will be very obscure games or recently created games that no one has bothered to program an AI to play yet. But even for those games, there will be AIs with general intelligence and learning abilities that will be “good enough” to play as well as average humans by reading the instruction manuals and teaching themselves through simulated self-play.
  • The cost of getting your genome sequenced and expertly interpreted will drop below $1,000, and enough about the human genome will have been deciphered to make the cost worth the benefit for everyone. By the end of the decade, it will be common for newborns in rich countries to have their genomes sequenced.
  • Cheap DNA tests that can measure a person’s innate IQ and core personality traits with high accuracy will become widely available. There is the potential for this to cause social problems. 
  • At-home medical testing kits and diagnostic devices like swallowable camera-pills will become vastly better and more common.
  • Space tourism will become routine thanks to privately owned spacecraft. 
  • Marijuana will be effectively decriminalized in the U.S. Either the federal government will overturn its marijuana prohibitions, or some patchwork of state and federal bans will remain but be so weakened and lightly enforced that there will be no real government barriers to obtaining and using marijuana. 
  • By the end of this decade, photos of almost every living person will be available online (mostly on social media). Apps will exist that can scan through trillions of photos to find your doppelgangers. 
  • In 2029, the youngest Baby Boomer and the oldest Gen Xer will turn 65. 
  • Drones will be used in an attempted or successful assassination of at least one major world leader (Note: Venezuela’s Nicholas Maduro wasn’t high profile enough).

2030s

  • VR and AR goggles will become refined technologies and probably merge into a single type of lightweight device. Like smartphones today, anyone who wants the glasses in 2030 will have them. Even poor people in Africa will be able to buy them. A set of the glasses will last a day on a single charge under normal use.  
  • Augmented reality contact lenses will enter mass production and become widely available, though they won’t be as good as AR glasses and they might need remotely linked, body-worn hardware to provide them with power and data. https://www.inverse.com/article/31034-augmented-reality-contact-lenses
  • The bulky VR goggles of the 2020s will transform into lightweight, portable V.R. glasses thanks to improved technology. The glasses will display lifelike footage. However, the best VR goggles will still need to be plugged into other devices, like routers or PCs.
  • Wall-sized, thin, 8K or even 16K TVs will become common in homes in rich countries, and the TVs will be able to display 3D picture without the use of glasses. A sort of virtual reality chamber could be created at moderate cost by installing those TVs on all the walls of a room to create a single, wraparound screen.
  • Functional CRT TVs and computer monitors will only exist in museums and in the hands of antique collectors. This will also be true for DLP TVs. 
  • The video game industry will be bigger than ever and considered high art.
  • It will be standard practice for AIs to be doing hyperrealistic video game renderings, and for NPCs to behave very intelligently thanks to better AI. 
  • Books and computer tablets will merge into a single type of device that could be thought of as a “digital book.” It will be a book with several hundred pages made of thin, flexible digital displays (perhaps using ultra-energy efficient e-ink) instead of paper. At the tap of a button, the text on all of the pages will instantly change to display whichever book the user wanted to read at that moment. They could also be used as notebooks in which the user could hand write or draw things with a stylus, which would be saved as image or text files. The devices will fuse the tactile appeal of old-fashioned books with the content flexibility of tablet computers.
  • Loose-leaf sheets of “digital paper” will also exist thanks to the same technology.
  • Loneliness, social isolation, and other problems caused by overuse of technology and the atomized structure of modern life will be, ironically, cured to a large extent by technology. Chatbots that can hold friendly (and even funny and amusing) conversations with humans for extended periods, diagnose and treat mental illnesses as well as human therapists, and customize themselves to meet the needs of humans will become ubiquitous. The AIs will become adept at analyzing human personalities and matching lonely people with friends and lovers, at matching them with social gatherings (including some created by machines), and at recommending daily activities that will satisfy them, hour-by-hour. Machines will come to understand that constant technology use is antithetical to human nature, so in order to promote human wellness, they find ways to impel humans to get out of their houses, interact with other humans, and be in nature. Autonomous taxis will also be widespread and will have low fares, making it easier for people who are isolated due to low income or poor health (such as many elderly people) to go out.
  • Chatbots will steadily improve their “humanness” over the decade. The instances when AIs say or do something nonsensical will get less and less frequent. Dumber people, children, and people with some types of mental illness will be the first ones to start insisting their AIs are intelligent like humans. Later, average people will start claiming the same. By the end of the decade, a personal assistant AI like “Samantha” from the movie Her will be commercially available. AI personal assistants will have convincing, simulated personalities that seem to have the same depth as humans. Users will be able to pick from among personality profiles or to build their own.  
  • Chatbots will be able to have intelligent conversations with humans about politics and culture, to identify factually wrong beliefs, biases, and cognitive blind spots in individuals, and to effectively challenge them through verbal discussion and debate. The potential will exist for technology to significantly enlighten the human population and to reduce sociopolitical polarization. However, it’s unclear how many people will choose to use this technology. 
  • Turing-Test-capable chatbots will also supercharge the problem of online harassment, character assassination, and deliberate disinformation by spamming the internet with negative reviews, bullying messages, emails to bosses, and humiliating “deepfake” photos and videos of targeted people. Today’s “troll farms” where humans sit at computer terminals following instructions to write bad reviews for specific people or businesses will be replaced by AI trolls that can pump out orders of magnitude more content per day. And just as people today can “buy likes” for their social media accounts or business webpages, people in the future will be able, at low cost, to buy harassment campaigns against other people and organizations they dislike. Discerning between machine-generated and human-generated internet content will be harder and more important than ever.
  • House robots will start becoming common in rich countries. They will be slower at doing household tasks than humans, but will still save people hours of labor per week. They may or may not be humanoid. For the sake of safety and minimizing annoyance, most robots will do their work when humans aren’t around. As in, you would come home from work every day and find the floors vacuumed, the lawn mowed, and your laundered clothes in your dresser, with nary a robot in sight since it will have gone back into its closet to recharge. You would never hear the commotion of a clothes washing machine, a vacuum cleaner or a lawnmower. All the work would get done when you were away, as if by magic.
  • People will start having genuine personal relationships with AIs and robots. For example, people will resist upgrading to new personal assistant AIs because they will have emotional attachments to their old ones. The destruction of a helper robot or AI might be as emotionally traumatic to some people as the death of a human relative.
  • Farm robots that are better than humans at fine motor tasks like picking strawberries humans will start becoming widespread.  
  • Self-driving cars will become cheap enough and practical enough for average income people to buy, and their driving behavior will become as efficient as an average human. Over the course of this decade, there will be rapid adoption of self-driving cars in rich countries. Freed from driving, people will switch to doing things like watching movies/TV and eating. Car interiors will change accordingly. Road fatalities, and the concomitant demands for traffic police, paramedics, E.R. doctors, car mechanics, and lawyers will sharply decrease. The car insurance industry will shrivel, forcing consolidation. (Humans in those occupations will also face increasing levels of direct job competition from machines over the course of the decade.)
  • Private owners of autonomous cars will start renting them out while not in use as taxis and package delivery vehicles. Your personal, autonomous car will drive you to work, then spend eight hours making money for you doing side jobs, and will be waiting for you outside your building at the end of the day.
  • The “big box” business model will start taking over the transportation and car repair industry thanks to the rise of electric, self-driving vehicles and autonomous taxis in place of personal car ownership. The multitudes of small, scattered car repair shops will be replaced by large, centralized car repair facilities that themselves resemble factory assembly lines. Self-driving vehicles will drive to them to have their problems diagnosed and fixed, sparing their human owners from having to waste their time sitting in waiting rooms.
  • The same kinds of facilities will make inroads into the junk yard industry, as they would have all the right tooling to cheaply and rapidly disassemble old vehicles, test the parts for functionality, and shunt them to disposal or individual resale. (The days of hunting through junkyards by yourself for a car part you need will eventually end–it will all be on eBay. )
  • Car ownership won’t die out because it will still be a status symbol, and having a car ready in your driveway will always be more convenient than having to wait even just two minutes for an Uber cab to arrive at the curb. People are lazy.
  • The ad hoc car rental model exemplified by autonomous Uber cabs and private people renting out their autonomous cars when not in use faces a challenge since daily demand for cars peaks during morning rush hour and afternoon rush hour. In other words, everyone needs a car at the same time each day, so the ratio of cars : people can’t deviate much from, say, 1:2. Of course, if more people telecommuted (almost certain in the future thanks to better VR, faster broadband, and tech-savvy Millennials reaching middle age and taking over the workplace), and if flexible schedules became more widespread (also likely, but within certain limits since most offices can’t function efficiently unless they have “all hands on deck” for at least a few hours each day), the ratio could go even lower. However, there’s still a bottom limit to how few cars a country will need to provide adequate daily transportation for its people.
  • Private delivery services will get cheaper and faster thanks to autonomous vehicles.
  • Automation will start having a major impact on the global economy. Machines will compensate for the shrinkage of the working-age human population in the developed world. Countries with “graying” populations like Japan and Germany will experience a new wave of economic growth. Demand for immigrant laborers will decrease across the world because of machines.
  • There will be a worldwide increase in the structural unemployment rate thanks to better and cheaper narrow AIs and robots. A plausible scenario would be for the U.S. unemployment rate to be 10%–which was last the case at the nadir of the Great Recession–but for every other economic indicator to be strong. The clear message would be that human labor is becoming decoupled from the economy.
  • Combining all the best AI and robotics technologies, it will be possible to create general-purpose androids that could function better in the real world (e.g. – perform in the workplace, learn new things, interact with humans, navigate public spaces, manage personal affairs) than the bottom 10% of humans (e.g. – elderly people, the disabled, criminals, the mentally ill, people with poor language abilities or low IQs), and in some narrow domains, the androids will be superhuman (e.g. – physical strength, memory, math abilities). Note that businesses will still find it better to employ task-specific, non-human-looking robots instead of general purpose androids.
  • By the end of this decade, only poor people, lazy people, and conspiracy theorists (like anti-vaxxers) won’t have their genomes sequenced. It will be trivially cheap, and in fact free for many people (some socialized health care systems will fully subsidize it), and enough will be known about the human genome to make it worthwhile to have the information.
  • Computers will be able to accurately deduce a human’s outward appearance based on only a DNA sample. This will aid police detectives, and will have other interesting uses, such as allowing parents to see what their unborn children will look like as adults, or allowing anyone to see what they’d look like if they were of the opposite sex (one sex chromosome replaced). 
  • Trivially cheap gene sequencing and vastly improved knowledge of the human genome will give rise to a “human genome black market,” in which people secretly obtain DNA samples from others, sequence them, and use the data for their own ends. For example, a politician could be blackmailed by an enemy who threatened to publish a list of his genetic defects or the identities of his illegitimate children. Stalkers (of celebrities and ordinary people) would also be interested in obtaining the genetic information of the people they were obsessed with. It is practically impossible to prevent the release of one’s DNA since every discarded cup, bottle, or utensil has a sample. 
  • Markets will become brutally competitive and efficient thanks to AIs. Companies will sharply grasp consumer demand through real-time surveillance, and consumers will be alerted to bargains by their personal AIs and devices (e.g. – your AR glasses will visually highlight good deals as you walk through the aisles of a store). Your personal assistant AIs and robots will look out for your self-interest by countering the efforts of other AIs to sway your spending habits in ways that benefit companies and not you.
  • “Digital immortality” will become possible for average people. Personal assistant AIs, robot servants, and other monitoring devices will be able, through observation alone, to create highly accurate personality profiles of individual humans, and to anticipate their behavior with high fidelity. Voices, mannerisms and other biometrics will be digitally reproducible without any hint of error. Digital simulacra of individual humans will be further refined by having them take voluntary personality tests, and by uploading their genomes, brain scans and other body scans. Even if all of the genetic and biological data couldn’t be made sense of at the moment it was uploaded to an individual’s digital profile, there will be value in saving it since it might be decipherable in the future. (Note that “digital immortality” is not the same as “mind uploading.”)
  • Life expectancy will have increased by a few years thanks to pills and therapies that slightly extend human lifespan. Like, you take a $20 pill each day starting at age 20 and you end up dying at age 87 instead of age 84.
  • Global oil consumption will peak as people continue switching to other power sources.
  • Earliest possible date for the first manned Mars mission.
  • Movie subtitles and the very notion of there being “foreign language films” will become obsolete. Computers will be able to perfectly translate any human language into another, to create perfect digital imitations of any human voice, and to automatically apply CGI so that the mouth movements of people in video footage matches the translated words they’re speaking. The machines will also be able to reproduce detailed aspects of an actor’s speech, such as cadence, rhythm, tone and timbre, emotion, and accent, and to convey them accurately in another language.
  • Computers will also be able to automatically enhance and upscale old films by accurately colorizing them, removing defects like scratches, and sharpening or focusing footage (one technique will involve interpolating high-res still photos of long-dead actors onto the faces of those same actors in low-res moving footage). Computer enhancement will be so good that we’ll be able to watch films from the early 20th century with near-perfect image and audio clarity.
  • CGI will get so refined than moviegoers with 20/20 vision won’t be able to see the difference between footage of unaltered human actors and footage of 100% CGI actors.
  • Lifelike CGI and “performance capture” will enable “digital resurrections” of dead actors. Computers will be able to scan through every scrap of footage with, say, John Wayne in it, and to produce a perfect CGI simulacrum of him that even speaks with his natural voice, and it will be seamlessly inserted into future movies. Elderly actors might also license movie studios to create and use digital simulacra of their younger selves in new movies. The results will be very fascinating, but might also worsen Hollywood’s problem with making formulaic content.
  • China’s military will get strong enough to defeat U.S. forces in the western Pacific. This means that, in a conventional war for control of the Spratly Islands and/or Taiwan, China would have >50% odds of winning. This shift in the local balance of power does not mean China will start a conflict. 
  • The quality and sophistication of China’s best military technology will surpass Russia’s best technology in all or almost all categories. However, it will still lag the U.S. 

2040s

  • The world and peoples’ outlooks and priorities will be very different than they were in 2019. Cheap renewable energy will have become widespread and totally negated any worries about an “energy crisis” ever happening, except in exotic, hypothetical scenarios about the distant future. There will be little need for immigration thanks to machine labor and cross-border telecommuting (VR, telepresence, and remote-controlled robots will be so advanced that even blue-collar jobs involving manual labor will be outsourced to workers living across borders). Moreover, there will be a strong sense in most Western countries that they’re already “diverse enough,” and that there are no further cultural benefits to letting in more foreigners since large communities of most foreign ethnic groups will already exist within their borders. There will be more need than ever for strong social safety nets and entitlement programs thanks to technological unemployment. AI will be a central political and social issue. It won’t be the borderline sci-fi, fringe issue it was in 2019.
  • Automation, mass unemployment, wealth inequalities between the owners of capital and everyone else, and differential access to expensive human augmentation technologies (like genetic engineering) will produce overwhelming political pressure for some kind of wealth redistribution and social safety net expansion. Countries that have diligently made small, additive reforms as necessary over the preceding decades will be untroubled. However, countries that failed to adapt their political and economic systems will face upheaval.
  • 2045 will pass without the Technological Singularity happening. Ray Kurzweil will either celebrate his 97th birthday in a wheelchair, or as a popsicle frozen at the Alcor Foundation.
  • Supercomputers that match or surpass upper-level estimates of the human brain’s computational capabilities will cost a few hundred thousand to a few million dollars apiece, meaning tech companies and universities will be able to afford large numbers of them for AI R&D projects, accelerating progress in the field. Hardware will no longer be the limiting factor to building AGI. If it hasn’t been built yet, it will be due to failure to figure out how to arrange the hardware in the right way to support intelligent thought, and/or to a failure to develop the necessary software. 
  • With robots running the economy, it will be common for businesses to operate 24/7: restaurants will never close, online orders made at 3:00 am will be packed in boxes by 3:10 am, and autonomous delivery trucks will only stop to refuel, exchange cargo, or get preventative maintenance.
  • Advanced energy technology, robot servants, 3D printers, telepresence, and other technologies will allow people to live largely “off-grid” if they choose, while still enjoying a level of comfort that 2019 people would envy.
  • Recycling will become much more efficient and practical thanks to house robots properly cleaning, sorting, and crushing/compacting waste before disposing of it. Automated sorting machines at recycling centers will also be much better than they are today. Today, recycling programs are hobbled because even well-meaning humans struggle to remember which of their trash items are recyclable and which aren’t since the acceptable items vary from one municipality to the next, and as a result, recycling centers get large amounts of unusable material, which they must filter out at great cost. House robots would remember it perfectly.
  • Thanks to this diligence, house robots will also increase backyard composting, easing the burden on municipal trash services. 
  • It will be common for cities, towns and states to heavily restrict or ban human-driven vehicles within their boundaries. A sea change in thinking will happen as autonomous cars become accepted as “the norm,” and human-driven cars start being thought of as unusual and dangerous.
  • Over 90% of new car sales in developed countries will be for electric vehicles. Just as the invention of the automobile transformed horses into status goods used for leisure, the rise of electric vehicles will transform internal combustion vehicles into a niche market for richer people. 
  • A global “family tree” showing how all humans are related will be built using written genealogical records and genomic data from the billions of people who have had their DNA sequenced. It will become impossible to hide illegitimate children, and it will also become possible for people to find “genetic doppelgangers”–other people they have no familial relationship to, but with whom, by some coincidence, they share a very large number of genes. 
  • Improved knowledge of human genetics and its relevance to personality traits and interests will strengthen AI’s ability to match humans with friends, lovers, and careers. Rising technological unemployment will create a need for machines to match human workers with the remaining jobs in as efficient a manner as possible.
  • Realistic robot sex bots that can move and talk will exist. They won’t perfectly mimic humans, but will be “good enough” for most users. Using them will be considered weird and “for losers” at first, but in coming decades it will go mainstream, following the same pattern as Internet dating. [If we think of sex as a type of task, and if we agree that machines will someday be able to do all tasks better than humans, then it follows that robots will be better than humans at sex.]  

2050s

  • This is the earliest possible time that AGI/SAI will be invented. It will not be able to instantly change everything in the world or to initiate a Singularity, but it will rapidly grow in intelligence, wealth, and power. It will probably be preceded by successful computer simulations of the brains of progressively more complex model organisms, such as flatworms, fruit flies, and lab rats.
  • Humans will be heavily dependent upon their machines for almost everything (e.g. – friendship, planning the day, random questions to be answered, career advice, legal counseling, medical checkups, driving cars), and the dependency will be so ingrained that humans will reflexively assume that “The Machines are always right.” Consciously and unconsciously, people will yield more and more of their decision-making and opinion-forming to machines, and find that they and the world writ large are better off for it. This will be akin to having an angel on your shoulder watching your surroundings and watching you, and giving you constructive advice all the time. 
  • In the developed world, less than 50% of people between age 22 and 65 will have gainful full-time jobs. However, if unprofitable full-time jobs that only persist thanks to government subsidies (such as someone running a small coffee shop and paying the bills with their monthly UBI check) and full-time volunteer “jobs” (such as picking up trash in the neighborhood) are counted, most people in that age cohort will be “doing stuff” on a full-time basis.  
  • The doomsaying about Global Warming will start to quiet down as the world’s transition to clean energy hits full stride and predictions about catastrophes from people like Al Gore fail to pan out by their deadlines. Sadly, people will just switch to worrying about and arguing about some new set of doomsday prophecies about something else.
  • By almost all measures, standards of living will be better in 2050 than today. People will commonly have all types of wonderful consumer devices and appliances that we can’t even fathom. However, some narrow aspects of daily life are likely to worsen, such as overcrowding and further erosion of the human character. Just as people today have short memories and take too many things for granted, so shall people in the 2050s fail to appreciate how much the standard of living has risen since today, and they will ignore all the steady triumphs humanity has made over its problems, and by default, people will still believe the world is constantly on the verge of collapsing and that things are always getting worse.
  • Cheap desalination will provide humanity with unlimited amounts of drinking water and end the prospect of “water wars.” 
  • Mass surveillance and ubiquitous technology will have minimized violent crime and property crime in developed countries: It will be almost impossible to commit such crimes without a surveillance camera or some other type of sensor detecting the act, or without some device recording the criminal’s presence in the area at the time of the act. House robots will contribute by effectively standing guard over your property at night while you sleep. 
  • It will be common for people to have health monitoring devices on and inside of their bodies that continuously track things like their heart rate, blood pressure, respiration rate, and gene expression. If a person has a health emergency or appears likely to have one, his or her devices will send out a distress signal alerting EMS and nearby random citizens. If you walked up to such a person while wearing AR glasses, you would see their vital statistics and would receive instructions on how to assist them (i.e. – How to do CPR). Robots will also be able to render medical aid. 
  • Cities and their suburbs across the world will have experienced massive growth since 2019. Telepresence, relatively easy off-grid living, and technological unemployment will not, on balance, have driven more people out of metro areas than have migrated into them. Farming areas full of flat, boring land will have been depopulated, and many farms will be 100% automated. The people who choose to leave the metro areas for the “wilderness” will concentrate in rural areas (including national parks) where the climate is good, the natural scenery is nice, and there are opportunities for outdoor recreation. Real estate prices will, in inflation-adjusted terms, be much higher in most metro areas and places with natural beauty than they were in 2020 because the “supply” of those prime locations is almost fixed, whereas the demand for them is elastic and will rise thanks to population growth, rising incomes, and the aforementioned technology advancements.
  • Therapeutic cloning and stem cell therapies will become useful and will effectively extend human lifespan. For example, a 70-year-old with a failing heart will be able to have a new one grown in a lab using his own DNA, and then implanted into his chest to replace the failing original organ. The new heart will be equivalent to what he had when at age 18 years, so it will last another 52 years before it too fails. In a sense, this will represent age reversal to one part of his body.
  • The first healthy clone of an adult human will be born.
  • Many factories, farms, and supply chains will be 100% automated, and it will be common for goods to not be touched by a human being’s hands until they reach their buyers. Robots will deliver Amazon packages to your doorstep and even carry them into your house. Items ordered off the internet will appear inside your house a few hours later, as if by magic. 
  • Smaller versions of the robots used on automated farms will be available at low cost to average people, letting them effortlessly create backyard gardens. This will boost global food production and let people have greater control over where their food comes from and what it contains. 
  • The last of America’s Cold War-era weapon platforms (e.g. – the B-52 bomber, F-15 fighter, M1 Abrams tank, Nimitz aircraft carrier) will finally be retired from service. There will be instances where four generations of people from the same military family served on the same type of plane or ship. 
  • Cheap guided bullets, which can make midair course changes and be fired out of conventional man-portable rifles, will become common in advanced armies. 
  • Personal “cloaking devices” made of clothes studded with pinhole cameras and thin, flexible sheets of LEDs, colored e-ink, or some metamaterial with similar abilities will be commercially available. The cameras will monitor the appearance of the person’s surroundings and tell the display pixels to change their colors to match. Ski masks made of the same material would let wearers change their facial features, fooling most face recognition cameras and certainly fooling the unaided eyes of humans. The pixels could also be made to glow bright white, allowing the wearer to turn any part of his body into a flashlight. 
  • Powered exoskeletons will become practical for a wide range of applications, mainly due to improvements in batteries. For example, a disabled person could use a lightweight exoskeleton with a battery the size of a purse to walk around for a whole day on a single charge, and a soldier in a heavy-duty exoskeleton with a large backpack battery could do a day of marching on a single charge. (Note: Even though it will be technologically possible to equip infantrymen with combat exoskeletons, armies might reject the idea due to other impracticalities.)
  • There will be no technological or financial barrier to building powered combat exoskeletons that have cloaking devices. 
  • The richest person alive will achieve a $1 trillion net worth.
  • It will be technologically and financially feasible for small aircraft to produce zero net carbon emissions. The aircraft might use conventional engines powered by carbon-neutral synthetic fossil fuels that cost no more than normal fossil fuels, or they might have electric engines and very energy-dense batteries or fuel cells.

2060s

  • Machines will be better at satisfyingly matching humans with fields of study, jobs, friends, romantic partners, hobbies, and daily activities than most humans can do for themselves. Machines themselves will make better friends, confidants, advisers, and even lovers than humans. Additionally, machines will be smarter and more skilled at humans in most areas of knowledge and types of work. A cultural sea change will happen, in which most humans come to trust, rely upon, defend, and love machines.
  • House robots and human-sized worker robots will be as strong, agile, and dexterous as most humans, and their batteries will be energy-dense enough to power them for most of the day. A typical American family might have multiple robot servants that physically follow around the humans each day to help with tasks. The family members will also be continuously monitored and “followed” by A.I.s embedded in their portable personal computing devices and possibly in their bodies. 
  • Cheap home delivery of groceries, robot chefs, and a vast trove of free online recipes will enable people in average households to eat restaurant-quality meals at home every day, at low cost. Predictive algorithms that can appropriately choose new meals for humans based on their known taste preferences and other factors will determine the menu, and many people will face a culinary “satisfaction paradox.”
  • Machines will understand humans individually and at the species level better than humans understand themselves. They will have highly accurate personality models of most humans along with a comprehensive grasp of human sociology, human decision-making, human psychology, human cognitive biases, and human nature, and will pool the information to accurately predict human behavior. A nascent version of a 1:1 computer simulation of the Earth–with the human population modeled in great detail–will be created.
  • Machines will be better teachers than most trained humans. The former will have much sharper grasps of their pupils’ individual strengths, weaknesses, interests, and learning styles, and will be able to create and grade tests in a much fairer and less biased manner than humans. Every person will have his own tutor. 
  • There will be a small, permanent human presence on the Moon.
  • If a manned Mars mission hasn’t happened yet, then there will be intense pressure to do so by the centennial of the first Moon landing (1969).
  • The worldwide number of supercentenarians–people who are at least 110 years old–will be sharply higher than it was in 2019: Their population size could be 10 times bigger or more. 
  • Advances in a variety of technologies will make it possible to cryonically freeze humans in a manner that doesn’t pulverize their tissue. However, the technology needed to safely thaw them out won’t be invented for decades. 
  • China will effectively close the technological, military, and standard of living gaps with other developed countries. Aside from the unpleasantness of being a more crowded place, life in China won’t be worse overall than life in Japan or the average European country. Importantly, China’s pollution levels will be much lower than they are today thanks to a variety of factors.
  • Small drones (mostly aerial) will have revolutionized warfare, terrorism, assassinations, and crime and will be mature technologies. An average person will be able to get a drone of some kind that can follow his orders to find and kill other people or to destroy things.
  • Countermeasures against those small drones will also have evolved, and might include defensive drones and mass surveillance networks to detect drone attacks early on. The networks would warn people via their body-worn devices of incoming drone attacks or of sightings of potentially hostile drones. The body-worn devices, such as smartphones and AR glasses, might even have their own abilities to automatically detect drones by sight and sound and to alert their wearers.

2070s

  • 100 years after the U.S. “declared war” on cancer, there still will not be a “cure” for most types of cancer, but vaccination, early detection, treatment, and management of cancer will be vastly better, and in countries with modern healthcare systems, most cancer diagnoses will not reduce a person’s life expectancy. Consider that diabetes and AIDS were once considered “death sentences” that would invariably kill people within a few years of diagnosis, until medicines were developed that transformed them into treatable, chronic health conditions. 
  • Hospital-acquired infections will be far less of a problem than they are in 2020 thanks to better sterilization practices, mostly made possible by robots.
  • It will be technologically and financially feasible for large commercial aircraft to produce zero net carbon emissions. The aircraft might use conventional engines powered by synthetic fossil fuels, or they might have electric engines and very energy-dense batteries or fuel cells. 
  • Digital or robotic companions that seem (or actually are) intelligent, funny, and loving will be easier for humans to associate with than other humans.
  • Technology will enable the creation of absolute surveillance states, where all human behavior is either constantly monitored or is inferred with high accuracy based on available information. Even a person’s innermost thoughts will be knowable thanks to technologies that monitor him or her for the slightest things like microexpressions, twitches, changes in voice tone, and eye gazes. When combined with other data regarding how the person spends their time and money, it will be possible to read their minds. The Thought Police will be a reality in some countries.  

2100

  • Humans probably won’t be the dominant intelligent life forms on Earth.
  • Latest possible time that AGI/SAI will be invented. By this point, computer hardware will so powerful that we could do 1:1 digital simulations of human brains. If our AI still falls far short of human-like general intelligence and creativity, then it might be that only organic substrates have the necessary properties to support them.
  • The worst case scenario is that AGI/Strong AI will have not been invented yet, but thousands of different types of highly efficient, task-specific Narrow AIs will have (often coupled to robot bodies), and they will fill almost every labor niche better than human workers ever could (“Death by a Thousand Cuts” job automation scenario). Humans grow up in a world where no one has to work, and the notion of drudge work, suffering through a daily commute, and involuntarily waking up at 6:00 am five days a week is unfathomable. Every human will have machines that constantly monitor them or follow them around, and meet practically all their needs.
  • Telepresence technology will also be very advanced, allowing humans to do nearly any task remotely, from any other place in the world, in safety and comfort. This will include cognitive tasks and hands-on tasks. If any humans still have jobs, they’ll be able to work from anywhere.
  • The world could in many ways resemble Ray Kurzweil’s predicted Post-Singularity world. However, the improvements and changes will have accrued thanks to decades of AGI/Strong AI steady effort. Everything will not instantly change on DD/MM/2045 as Kurzweil suggests it will.
  • Hundreds of millions, and possibly billions, of “digitally immortal avatars” of dead humans will exist, and you will be able to interact with them through a variety of means (in FIVR, through devices like earpieces and TV screens, in the real world if the avatar takes over an android body resembling the human it was based on). 
  • A weak sort of immortality will be available thanks to self-cloning, immortal digital avatars, and perhaps mind uploading. You could clone yourself and instruct your digital avatar–which would be a machine programmed with your personality and memories–to raise the clone and ensure it developed to resemble you. Your digital avatar might have an android body or could exist in a disembodied state. 
  • It will be possible to make clones of humans using only their digital format genomic data. In other words, if you had a .txt file containing a person’s full genetic code, you could use that by itself to make a living, breathing clone. Having samples of their cells would not be necessary. 
  • The “DNA black market” that arose in the 2030s will pose an even bigger threat since it will be now possible to use DNA samples alone or their corresponding .txt files to clone a person or to produce a sperm or egg cell and, in turn, a child. Potential abuses include random people cloning or having the children of celebrities they are obsessed with, or cloning billionaires in the hopes of milking the clones for money. Important people who might be targets of such thefts will go to pains to prevent their DNA from being known. Since dead people have no rights, third parties might be able to get away with cloning or making gametes of the deceased.
  • Life expectancy escape velocity and perhaps medical immortality will be achieved. It will come not from magical, all-purpose nanomachines that fix all your body’s cells and DNA, but from a combination of technologies, including therapeutic cloning of human organs, cybernetic replacements for organs and limbs, and stem cell therapies that regenerate ageing tissues and organs inside the patient’s body. The treatments will be affordable in large part thanks to robot doctors and surgeons who work almost for free, and to medical patents expiring.
  • All other aspects of medicine and healthcare will have radically advanced. There will be vaccines and cures for almost all contagious diseases. We will be masters of human genetic engineering and know exactly how to produce people that today represent the top 1% of the human race (holistically combining IQ, genetic health, physical attractiveness, and likable/prosocial personality traits). However, the value of even a genius-IQ human will be questionable since intelligent machines will be so much smarter.
  • Augmentative cybernetics (including direct brain-to-computer links) will exist and be in common use.
  • Full-immersion virtual reality (FIVR) will exist wherein AI game masters constantly tailor environments, NPCs and events to suit each player’s needs and to keep them entertained. Every human will have his own virtual game universe where he’s #1. With no jobs in the real world to occupy them, it’s quite possible that a large fraction of the human race will willingly choose to live in FIVR. (Related to the satisfaction paradox) Elements of these virtual environments could be pornographic and sexual, allowing people to gratify any type of sexual fetish or urge with computer-generated scenarios and partners. 
  • More generally, AIs and humans whose creativity is turbocharged by machines will create enjoyable, consumable content (e.g. – films, TV shows, songs, artwork, jokes, new types of meals) faster than non-augmented humans can consume it. As a simple example of what this will be like, assume you have 15 hours of free time per day, that you love spending it listening to music, and each day, your favorite bands produce 16 hours worth of new songs that you really like.
  • The vast majority of unaugmented human beings will no longer be assets that can invent things and do useful work: they will be liabilities that do (almost) everything worse than intelligent machines and augmented humans. Ergo, the size of a nation’s human population will subtract from its economic and military power, and radical shifts in geopolitics are possible. Geographically large but sparsely populated countries like Russia, Australia and Canada might become very strong.
  • The transition to green energy sources will be complete, and humans will no longer be net emitters of greenhouse gases. The means will exist to start reducing global temperatures to restore the Earth to its pre-industrial state, but people will resist because they will have gotten used to the warmer climate. People living in Canada and Russia won’t want their countries to get cold again.
  • Synthetic meat will taste no different from animal meat, and will be at least as cheap to make. The raising and/or killing of animals for food will be be illegal in many countries, and trends will clearly show the practice heading for worldwide ban. 
  • The means to radical alter human bodies, alter memories, and alter brain structures will be available. The fundamental bases of human existence and human social dynamics will change unpredictably once differences in appearance/attractiveness, intelligence, and personality traits can be eliminated at will. Individuals won’t be defined by fixed attributes anymore. 
  • Brain implants will make “telepathy” possible between humans, machines and animals. Computers, sensors and displays will be embedded everywhere in the built environment and in nature, allowing humans with brain implants to interface with and control things around them through thought alone. 
  • Brain implants and brain surgeries will also be used to enhance IQ, change personality traits, and strengthen many types of skills. 
  • Technologically augmented humans and androids will have many abilities and qualities that ancient people considered “Godlike,” such as medical immortality, the ability to control objects by thought, telepathy, perfect memories, and superhuman senses.
  • Flying cars designed to carry humans could be common, but they will be flown by machines, not humans. Ground vehicles will retain many important advantages (fuel efficiency, cargo capacity, safety, noise level, and more) and won’t become obsolete. Instead of flying cars, it’s more likely that there will be millions of small, autonomous helicopters and VTOL aircraft that will cheaply ferry people through dense, national networks of helipads and airstrips. Autonomous land vehicles would take take passengers to and from the landing sites. (https://www.militantfuturist.com/why-flying-cars-never-took-off-and-probably-never-will/
  • The notion of vehicles (e.g. – cars, planes, and boats) polluting the air will be an alien concept. 
  • Advanced nanomachines could exist.
  • Vastly improved materials and routine use of very advanced computer design simulations (including simulations done in quantum computers) will mean that manufactured objects of all types will be optimally engineered in every respect, and might seem to have “magical” properties. For example, a car will be made of hundreds of different types of alloys, plastics, and glass, each optimized for a different part of the vehicle, and car recalls will never happen since the vehicles will undergo vast amounts of simulated testing in every conceivable driving condition in 1:1 virtual simulations of the real world. 
  • Design optimization and the rise of AGI consumption will virtually eliminate planned obsolescence. Products that were deliberately engineered to fail after needlessly short periods, and “new” product lines that were no better than what they replaced, but had non-interchangeable part sizes would be exposed for what they were, and AGI consumers would refuse to buy them. Production will become much more efficient and far fewer things will be thrown out. 
  • Relatively cheap interplanetary travel (probably just to Mars and to space stations and moons that are about as far as Mars) will exist.
  • Androids that are outwardly indistinguishable from humans will exist, and humans will hold no advantages over them (e.g. – physical dexterity, fine motor control, appropriateness of facial expressions, capacity for creative thought). Some androids will also be indistinguishable to the touch, meaning they will seem to be made of supple flesh and will be the same temperature as human bodies. However, their body parts will not be organic.
  • Sex robots will be indistinguishable from humans.
  • Robots that are outwardly identical to sci-fi and fantasy characters and extinct animals, like grey aliens, elves, and dinosaurs, will exist and will occasionally be seen in public. Some weird person will want their robot butler to look like bigfoot. 
  • Machines that are outwardly indistinguishable from animals will also exist, and they will have surveillance and military applications. 
  • Drones, miniaturized smart weapons, and AIs will dominate warfare, from the top level of national strategy down to the simplest act of combat. The world’s strongest military could, with conventional weapons alone, destroy most of the world’s human population in a short period of time. 
  • The construction and daily operation of prisons will have been fully automated, lowering the monetary costs of incarceration. As such, state prosecutors and judges will no longer feel pressure to let accused criminals have plea deals or to give them shorter prison sentences to ease the burdens of prison overcrowding and high overhead costs. 
  • The term “millionaire” will fall out of use in the U.S. and other Western countries since inflation will have rendered $1 million USD only as valuable as $90,000 USD was in 2019 (assuming a constant inflation rate of 3.0%).
  • There will still be major wealth and income inequality across the human race. However, wealth redistribution, better government services, advances in industrial productivity, and better technologies will ensure that even people in the bottom 1% have all their basic and intermediate life needs meet. In many ways, the poor people of 2100 will have better lives than the rich people of 2020.

2101 – 2200 AD

  • Humans will definitely stop being the dominant intelligent life forms on Earth. 
  • Many “humans” will be heavily augmented through genetic engineering, other forms of bioengineering, and cybernetics. People who outwardly look like the normal humans of today might actually have extensive internal modifications that give them superhuman abilities. Non-augmented, entirely “natural” humans like people in 2019 will be looked down upon in the same way you might today look at a very low IQ person with sensory impairments. Being forced by your biology to incapacitate yourself for 1/3 of each day to sleep will be tantamount to having a medical disability. 
  • Due to a reduced or nonexistent need for sleep among intelligent machines and augmented humans and to the increased interconnectedness of the planet, global time zones will become much less relevant. It will be common for machines, humans, businesses, and groups to use the same clock–probably Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)–and for activity to proceed on a 24/7 basis, with little regard of Earth’s day/night cycle. 
  • Physical disabilities and defects of appearance that cause untold anguish to people in 2019 will be easily and cheaply fixable. For example, male-pattern baldness and obesity will be completely ameliorated with minor medical interventions like pills or outpatient surgery. Missing or deformed limbs will be easily replaced, all types of plastic surgery (including sex reassignment) will be vastly better and cheaper than today, and spinal cord damage will be totally repairable. The global “obesity epidemic” will disappear. Transsexual people will be able to seamlessly alter their bodies to conform with their preferred genders, or to alter their brains so their gender identities conform with the bodies they were born with. 
  • All sleep disorders will be curable thanks to cybernetics that can use electrical pulses to quickly initiate sleep states in human brains. The same kinds of technologies will also reduce or eliminate the need for humans to sleep, and for people to control their dreams. 
  • Brain-computer interfaces will let people control, pre-program, and, to a limited extent, record their dreams. 
  • Almost all of today’s diseases will be cured.
  • The means to halt and reverse human aging will be created. The human population will come to be dominated by people who are eternally young and beautiful. 
  • Humans and machines will be immortal. Intelligent beings will find it terrifying and tragic to contemplate what it was like for humans in the past, who lived their lives knowing they were doomed to deteriorate and die. 
  • Extreme longevity, better reproductive technologies that eliminate the need for a human partner to have children, and robots that do domestic work and provide companionship (including sex) will weaken the institution of marriage more than any time in human history. An indefinite lifetime of monogamy will be impossible for most people to commit to. 
  • At reasonable cost, it will be possible for women to create healthy, genetically related children at any point in their lives, and without using the 2019-era, pre-menopausal egg freezing technique. For example, a 90-year-old, menopausal woman will be able to use reproductive technologies to make a baby that shares 50% of her DNA. 
  • Immortality, the automation of work, and widespread material abundance will completely transform lifestyles. With eternity to look forward to, people won’t feel pressured to get as rich as possible as quickly as possible. As stated, marriage will no longer be viewed as a lifetime commitment, and serial monogamy will probably become the norm. Relationships between parents and offspring will change as longevity erases the disparities in generational outlook and maturity that traditionally characterize parent-child interpersonal dynamics (e.g. – 300-year-old dad doesn’t know any better than his 270-year-old son). The “factory model” of public education–defined by conformity, rote memorization, frequent intelligence testing, and curricula structured to serve the needs of the job market–will disappear. The process of education will be custom-tailored to each person in terms of content, pacing, and style of instruction. Students will be much freer to explore subjects that interest them and to pursue those that best match their talents and interests. 
  • Radically extended human lifespans mean it will become much more common to have great-grandparents around. A cure for aging will also lead to families where members separated in age by many decades look the same age and have the same health. Additionally, older family members won’t be burdensome since they will be healthy.
  • Thanks to radical genetic engineering, there will be “human-looking,” biological people among us that don’t belong to our species, Homo sapiens. Examples could include engineered people who have 48 chromosomes instead of 46, people whose genomes have been shortened thanks to the deletion of junk DNA, or people who look outwardly human but who have radically different genes within their 46 chromosomes, so they have bird-like lungs. Such people wouldn’t be able to naturally breed with Homo sapiens, and would belong to new hominid species. 
  • Extinct species for which we have DNA samples (ex – from passenger pigeons on display in a museum) will “resurrected” using genetic technology.
  • The technology for safely thawing humans out of cryostasis and returning them to good health will be created. 
  • Suspended animation will become a viable alternative to suicide. Miserable people could “put themselves under,” with instructions to not be revived until the ill circumstances that tormented them had disappeared or until cures for their mental and medical problems were found. 
  • A sort of “time travel” will become possible thanks to technology. Suspended animation will let people turn off their consciousnesses until any arbitrary date in the future. From their perspective, no time will have elapsed between being frozen and being thawed out, even if hundreds of years actually passed between those two events, meaning the suspended animation machine will subjectively be no different from a time machine to them. FIVR paired with data from the global surveillance networks will let people enter highly accurate computer simulations of the past. The data will come from sources like old maps, photos, videos, and the digital avatars of people, living and dead. The computers simulations of past eras will get less accurate as the dates get more distant thanks to a paucity of data.
  • It will be possible to upload human minds to computers. The uploads will not share the same consciousness as their human progenitors, and will be thought of as “copies.” Mind uploads will be much more sophisticated than the digitally immortal avatars that will come into existence in the 2030s.
  • Different types of AGIs with fundamentally different mental architectures will exist. For example, some AGIs will be computer simulations of real human brains, while others will have totally alien inner workings. Just as a jetpack and a helicopter enable flight through totally different approaches, so will different types of AGIs be capable of intelligent thought. 
  • Gold, silver, and many other “precious metals” will be worth far less than today, adjusting for inflation, because better ways of extracting (including from seawater) them will have been developed. Space mining might also massively boost supplies of the metals, depressing prices. Diamonds will be nearly worthless thanks to better techniques for making them artificially. 
  • The first non-token quantities of minerals derived from asteroid mining will be delivered to the Earth’s surface. (Finding an asteroid that contains valuable minerals, altering its orbit to bring it closer to Earth, and then waiting for it to get here will take decades. No one will become a trillionaire from asteroid mining until well into the 22nd century.)
  • Intelligent life from Earth will colonize the entire Solar System, all dangerous space objects in our System will be found, the means to deflect or destroy them will be created, and intelligent machines will redesign themselves to be immune to the effects of radiation, solar flares, gamma rays, and EMP. As such, natural phenomena (including global warming) will no longer threaten the existence of civilization.  Intelligent beings will find it terrifying and tragic to contemplate what it was like for humans in the past, who were confined to Earth and at the mercy of planet-killing disasters. 
  • “End of the World” prophecies will become far less relevant since civilization will have spread beyond Earth and could be indefinitely self-sustaining even if Earth were destroyed. Some conspiracy theorists and religious people would deal with this by moving on to belief in “End of the Solar System” prophecies, but these will be based on extremely tenuous reasoning. 
  • The locus of civilization and power in our Solar System will shift away from Earth. The vast majority of intelligent life forms outside of Earth will be nonhuman. 
  • A self-sustaining, off-world industrial base will be created.
  • Spy satellites with lenses big enough to read license plates and discern facial features will be in Earth orbit. 
  • Space probes made in our Solar System and traveling at sub-light speeds will reach nearby stars.
  • All of the useful knowledge and great works of art that our civilization has produced or discovered could fit into an advanced memory storage device the size of a thumb drive. It will be possible to pair this with something like a self-replicating Von Neumann Probe, creating small, long-lived machines that would know how to rebuild something exactly like our civilization from scratch. Among other data, they would have files on how to build intelligent machines and cloning labs, and files containing the genomes and mind uploads of billions of unique humans and non-human organisms. Copies of existing beings and of long-dead beings could be “manufactured” anywhere, and loaded with the personality traits and memories of their predecessors. Such machines could be distributed throughout our Solar System as an “insurance policy” against our extinction, or sent to other star systems to seed them with life. Some of the probes could also be hidden in remote, protected locations on Earth.
  • We will find out whether alien life exists on Mars and the other celestial bodies in our Solar System. 
  • Intelligent machines will get strong enough to destroy the human race, though it’s impossible to assign odds to whether they’ll choose to do so.
  • If the “Zoo Hypothesis” is right, and if intelligent aliens have decided not to talk to humans until we’ve reached a high level of intellect, ethics, and culture, then the machine-dominated civilization that will exist on Earth this century might be advanced enough to meet their standards. Uncontrollable emotions and impulses, illogical thinking, tribalism, self-destructive behavior, and fear of the unknown will no longer govern individual and group behavior. Aliens could reveal their existence knowing it wouldn’t cause pandemonium. 
  • The government will no longer be synonymous with slowness and incompetence since all bureaucrats will be replaced by machines.
  • Technology will be seamlessly fused with humans, other biological organisms, and the environment itself.  
  • It will be cheaper and more energy-efficient to grow or synthesize almost all types of food in labs or factories than to grow and harvest it in traditional, open-air farms. Shielded from the weather and pests and not dependent on soil quality, the amounts and prices of foods will be highly consistent over time, and worries about farmland muscling out or polluting natural ecosystems will vanish. Animals will no longer be raised for food. Not only will this benefit animals, but it will benefit humans since it will eliminate a a major source of communicable disease (e.g. – new influenza strains originate in farm animals and, thanks to close contact with human farmers, evolve to infect people thanks to a process called “zoonosis”). Additionally, the means will exist to cheaply and artificially produce organic products, like wool and wood.
  • A global network of sensors and drones will identify and track every non-microscopic species on the planet. Cryptids like “bigfoot” and the “Loch Ness Monster” will be definitively proven to not exist. The monitoring network will also make it possible to get highly accurate, real-time counts of entire species populations. Mass gathering of DNA samples–either taken directly from organisms or from biological residue they leave behind–will also allow the full genetic diversity of all non-microscopic species to be known. 
  • That same network of sensors and machines will let us monitor the health of all the planet’s ecosystems and to intervene to protect any species. Interventions could include mass, painless sterilizations of species that are throwing the local ecology out of balance, mass vaccinations of species suffering through disease epidemics, reintroductions of extinct species, or widescale genetic engineering of a species. 
  • The technology and means to implement David Pearce’s global “benign stewardship” of nonhuman organic life will become available.  (https://youtu.be/KDZ3MtC5Et8) After millennia of inflicting damage and pain to the environment and other species, humanity will have a chance to inaugurate an era free of suffering.
  • The mass surveillance network will also look skyward and see all anomalous atmospheric phenomena and UFOs.
  • Robots will clean up all of the garbage created in human history. 
  • Every significant archaeological site will be excavated and every shipwreck found. There will be no work left for people in the antiquities. 
  • Dynamic traffic lane reversal will become the default for all major roadways, sharply increasing road capacity without compromising safety. Autonomous cars that can instantly adapt to changes in traffic direction and that can easily avoid hitting each other even at high speeds will enable the transformation.