A group of aerospace engineers built a new type of plane covered in hundreds of mechanical “feather” flaps. They can be independently raised and lowered, more efficiently doing the same maneuvering functions as traditional control surfaces like ailerons, rudders, and elevators.
https://phys.org/news/2019-04-mit-nasa-kind-airplane-wing.html
The F-14 could independently swing each of its wings, like birds, which assisted in turning.
http://www.grummanpark.org/content/tomcat-tales-f-14a-aircraft-no-3-buno-157982
The F-8 could pivot its wings up and down, like birds, which assisted in landings and takeoffs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable-incidence_wing
Where am I going with this? With more advanced materials, we could build flexible yet strong airplane wings that could move and morph like bird wings, dramatically improving their efficiency and maneuverability. However, I doubt it would make sense to make them capable of flapping, and it would be better to propel them with traditional engines.
The largest aircraft ever built just did its first test flight. The “Roc” transport will carry space rockets to high altitude before they fire up their engines.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/27427/stratolaunchs-roc-the-worlds-largest-aircraft-has-flown-for-the-first-time
Richard Branson’s Unity aircraft took its first passenger to the edge of space. 600 more people have bought passenger tickets for future flights.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/22/richard-bransons-virgin-galactic-sends-first-test-passenger-on-spaceflight.html
Branson said he’d do this by the end of 2018, but EH…close enough.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/
In another breakthrough, SpaceX safely landed three rocket boosters after a successful space mission.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/11/18305112/spacex-falcon-heavy-launch-rocket-landing-success-failure
Unable to land a man on the Moon first, the Soviets tried to steal a small bit of America’s thunder by using an unmanned probe to return the first Moon rock to Earth, just days before Apollo 11 was to do so. It failed.
https://www.amusingplanet.com/2019/04/luna-15-soviet-probe-that-tried-to.html
NASA’s plan to build a space station orbiting the Moon is probably a bad idea.
https://spacenews.com/op-ed-lunar-gateway-or-moon-direct/
The first attempt by a private company to land a craft on the Moon failed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47879538
There’s a new book about the near-misses in the history of DNA’s discovery.
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-history-of-dna/
It now costs only $229 to fully sequence a human genome (including its mitochondrial DNA). In 2000, the first human genome was sequenced at the cost of billions of dollars.
https://www.biospace.com/article/on-dna-day-2019-dante-labs-announces-229-whole-genome-offer-with-90-day-result-guarantee/
Genes responsible for math ability have been found.
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/04/genomic-prediction-of-flow-of-students.html
A 61-year-old woman used IVF and an egg donor to give birth to her own granddaughter.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/30/us/woman-gives-birth-to-granddaughter/index.html
The HPV vaccine reduces cervical cancer risk by about 90%.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-47803975
The field of dentistry has major problems with opacity of pricing, overtreatments, and shaky science behind things like the value of visiting the dentist twice a year instead of just once.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/the-trouble-with-dentistry/586039/
“There’s no theoretical reason for [the AI radiologist software] not to become as good as the best breast radiologists in the world.”
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/04/01/707675965/training-a-computer-to-read-mammograms-as-well-as-a-doctor
After failing to live up to the hype, IBM has canceled their “Watson for Drug Discovery” AI.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2019/04/18/farewell-to-watson-for-drug-discovery
A brain implant can decode the words a person is speaking by scanning his brain activity.
https://boingboing.net/2019/04/24/brain-computer-interface-succe.html
Ten years ago, Henry Markram said that a detailed, working simulation of a human brain could be built in ten years.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8164060.stm
Scientists were able to use a chemical cocktail to preserve pig brains and maintain chemical activity in the nerve tissue for several hours after death. A steady flow of a few million dollars per year on research like this could sharply improve human cryonics techniques.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/04/17/714289322/scientists-restore-some-function-in-the-brains-of-dead-pigs
Our ability to vision what’s happening inside of individual cells is improving.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2019/04/17/down-to-the-single-cells
One of my predictions: ‘A global network of sensors and drones will identify and track every non-microscopic species on the planet…The monitoring network will also make it possible to get highly accurate, real-time counts of entire species populations.’
https://qz.com/1600255/botanists-are-using-drones-to-rediscover-extinct-flowers/
Apple has terminated its “AirPower” wireless charging mats for smartphones and other personal devices. This isn’t any loss since the mats had no significant advantages over traditional plug-in chargers.
http://social.techcrunch.com/2019/03/29/apple-cancels-airpower-product-citing-inability-to-meet-its-high-standards-for-hardware/
Microsoft actually unveiled the first smartwatch in 2004.
https://wear.guide/smartwatch-reviews/2004-microsoft-spot-watch-smartwatch/
Here are the top ten failed predictions about how Bitcoin wouldn’t hit a wall in 2018.
https://qz.com/1171977/ten-2018-predictions-from-the-founder-of-the-blockchain-research-institute/
Elon Musk, 2016: Tesla will sell 500,000 vehicles in 2018.
Actual 2018 figures: 350,000 vehicles
https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/In-Gear/2016/0511/Can-Tesla-really-make-500-000-cars-by-the-end-of-2018
https://qz.com/1513166/tesla-reports-record-production-numbers-in-2018/
Elon Musk, early 2018: Tesla will start selling fully autonomous cars by the end of this year.
Elon Musk, early 2019: Tesla will start selling fully autonomous cars by the end of 2020.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/11/17449076/tesla-autopilot-full-self-driving-elon-musk
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48021380
If you’ve ever visited a crowded, poor country, you know how many people stand to benefit from replacing gas-powered vehicles (cars, buses, motorcycles, etc.) with electric vehicles that are quiet and emit no smoke. Billions of people suffer from the noise and stink of gas-powered vehicles, and probably tens of millions die prematurely each year from inhaling their smoke. If Elon Musk accelerates the global transition to electric vehicles by just one year, the benefit to humanity will be enormous. Similarly, it was inevitable that smartphones would be invented and popularized, but Steve Jobs’ leadership and energy made it happen years sooner.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/04/elon-measures-tesla-by-time-reduction-to-replacing-regular-2-5-billion-cars-and-trucks.html
Ford’s CEO predicts autonomous cars will arrive in 2021, but their applications will be narrow thanks to technological limitations.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-09/ford-ceo-tamps-down-expectations-for-first-autonomous-vehicles
Autonomous cars will reduce light pollution since their cameras and sensors would see in the dark, reducing the need for headlights and streetlights (I started writing a blog entry on this over a year ago but never finished).
https://qz.com/1596575/could-driverless-cars-reduce-light-pollution/
Donald Trump predicts that Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders will be the Democrats’ 2020 Presidential nominee.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6930369/Trump-predicts-Biden-Sanders-2020-Dem-finalists.html
Improvements to image processing algorithms mean that cheap cameras could replace expensive laser LIDAR devices in autonomous cars.
http://news.cornell.edu/stories/2019/04/new-way-see-objects-accelerates-future-self-driving-cars
The “Thucydides Trap” argument that the U.S. and China are destined for war is flawed because 14 out of the 16 historical precedents it cites involve Europe and/or the U.S. If the methodology is applied to analyzing power transitions in East Asian history, only three of 18 led to war.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/us-china-war-really-possible-54232
China built its first, indigenously designed nuclear reactor in 1991. It just upgraded that reactor, and is a world leader in nuclear technology.
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/China-uprates-its-oldest-reactor
The U.S. is losing the nuclear power export market to Russia and China because they offer lower prices and fewer end-use rules.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/trump-aims-to-beat-china-and-russia-in-nuclear-energy-export-race.html
Russia’s military aerospace industry is foundering because it is too centralized, and led by incompetent men picked for political reasons.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/doomed-fail-why-russias-stealth-su-57-serious-trouble-45997
Russia just sold several of its advanced Su-35 fighters to China, knowing full well the latter will reverse-engineer them. Since China is rapidly catching up to Russia technologically, Russia might as well sell their best equipment before the demand vanishes.
https://www.janes.com/article/87934/russia-completes-deliveries-of-su-35-fighter-aircraft-to-china
Albania is trying to sell 50 vintage fighter planes that it stored away in caves.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a27008434/albania-underground-air-force-sale-fighter-planes/
The list of horrible accidents in the Soviet/Russian nuclear submarine fleet goes on and on…
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/nuclear-nightmares-russias-first-nuclear-powered-submarines-had-lots-problems-51352
Russia is scrapping two of its four battlecruisers due to lack of money. As late as 2014, the Russians were thumping their chests over their plans to fix up all four and return them to service. Of the remaining two, one is seaworthy and the other has been awaiting repairs for 20 years.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russian-navy-dismantling-two-massive-nuclear-battlecruisers-heres-why-53827
China’s first Type 055 destroyer has entered active service. This class of ship is only slightly less capable than the U.S. Navy’s destroyers. Another three Type 001s have been built, but have yet to enter service, and China has plans to build at least four more.
https://www.janes.com/article/88060/chinese-navy-puts-newest-platforms-on-display
There are many different, incomplete metrics for gauging the relative strength of a country’s navy. Tonnage of the entire fleet and the number of ships in the fleet are merely starting points, though they’re often misused by people with political agendas to make navies seem stronger or weaker than they really are.
https://warontherocks.com/2014/07/sinking-the-next-13-navies-fallacy/
The White House has ordered the U.S. government to study the risks of EMP weapons and to prepare response plans for EMP attacks.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-coordinating-national-resilience-electromagnetic-pulses/
A scientific group believes that an EMP attack or solar flare would, at worst, temporarily knock out power to some regions of the U.S.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-grid-might-survive-an-electromagnetic-pulse-just-fine/
The U.S. Navy is writing new procedures for its pilots to report UFO sightings.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/23/us-navy-guidelines-reporting-ufos-1375290
Aviation enthusiasts in Texas captured photos of what looks like a secret, triangular, U.S. military plane.
https://youtu.be/lSGLBb3k80U
Before the age of spy satellites, the U.S. used unmanned, Mach 3 drones to fly deep into China for reconnaissance missions.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/check-out-d-21-mach-3-drone-us-used-spy-chinas-nuclear-weapons-52972
The U.S. has spy satellites with infrared vision cameras sensitive enough to see small missile launches and aircraft explosions.
https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/these-are-the-doomsday-satellites-that-detected-the-exp-1737434876
The USAF is upgrading its F-16s with new radars that are also used in the F-35.
https://defensemaven.io/warriormaven/air/air-force-f-16-gets-f-35-sensors-weapons-radar-uHz4bVom_EiIztCPrSWE0w/
Less than a month after getting its first squadron of F-35 fighters, one of Japan’s planes crashed, killing the pilot.
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/04/09/a-japanese-f-35a-fighter-jet-is-missing-remaining-12-are-grounded/
The last member of the WWII “Doolittle Raid” on Japan died. I knew many WWII veterans when I was a kid, and it feels weird knowing that my own kids will only know that generation through secondhand stories told by people like me.
https://apnews.com/7fbe2e34adb346ef8d0f8994ff0d4e55
In an incident kept secret for years, 400 U.S. soldiers were killed by friendly fire while rehearsing the D-Day invasion in Britain.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6963313/The-tragic-tale-Slapton-Sands.html
Britain should have armed itself with the German-made Leopard 2 tank instead of building an indigenous tank (the Challenger 2).
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/bad-news-british-army-bought-wrong-tank-52727
In the 1970s, the USAF designed “flying aircraft carriers” comprised of 747s full of “micro-fighters.”
https://youtu.be/drnxZlS9gyw
Last month, U.S. B-52 bombers did a simulated nuclear attack mission against Russia. Though the bombers turned away 60 miles from Russian airspace, the nuclear cruise missiles they fire in a real attack can travel hundreds of miles.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/scary-drill-us-b-52-bombers-practiced-nuclear-attacks-russia-last-month-50352
“Meal kits” might be better for the environment than making meals at home by yourself. This is because the kits have pre-measured quantities of food meant for one meal–most people eat everything in the box in one sitting. However, if you fill your refrigerator with ingredients and make your meals ad hoc, you’ll probably lose track of how fast everything is spoiling, forcing you to constantly throw food out.
https://news.umich.edu/those-home-delivered-meal-kits-are-greener-than-you-thought-new-study-concludes/
Between meal kits and drones rapidly and cheaply delivering goods to peoples’ homes, will it make sense for people–particularly those in cities–to have kitchens? A kitchenette would be good enough, and the space formerly devoted to a full kitchen could be repurposed for, say, a VR game chamber.
Plastic food packaging like cellophane is actually GOOD for the environment when you factor in the amount of food and beverage spoilage it prevents.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47161379
Yet another study shows that vertical farms are impractically expensive ways to grow food. Why not just enclose existing, open-air farms in one-story greenhouses? The crops could be transported to population centers on electric trucks.
https://qz.com/1595640/the-trouble-with-the-urban-farming-revolution/
A critical concept that too many environmentalists fail to grasp is that almost EVERY human activity uses energy and releases pollution. Instead of buying that new dress made of organic, sustainably farmed hemp, you shouldn’t buy a dress at all.
https://qz.com/1600886/the-best-thing-you-can-do-on-earth-day-is-sit-perfectly-still/
Nuclear power is much cleaner, and wind power is much less clean, than most people think.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/04/nuclear-energy-is-50-better-than-solar-for-lifetime-co2-emissions.html
A new study indicates that Americans and Canadians are the likeliest people in the Western world to falsely claim expertise in domains of knowledge. This is bothersome in itself, and also suggests that measures of the “Dunning-Kruger effect” might be inflated: There are dumb people who don’t know they are dumb and honestly think they are smart, but there are also dumb people why know they are dumb and deliberately lie about being smart, and surveys measuring the Dunning-Kruger effect might not be able to tell them apart.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2019/04/26/on-the-dunning-kruger-effect-and-on-fakers
A very smart, rich man with a computer background just wrote a book that argues we’re living in a computer simulation, and we’ll have the technology to make Matrix-like VR worlds within 100 years.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/4/10/18275618/simulation-hypothesis-matrix-rizwan-virk
Here’s a useful summary of S-curves, the Gartner Hype Cycle, and future forecasting. I think VR is at the “Early Adopters” tech phase, and will leap “The Chasm” during the 2020s.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oaqKjHbgsoqEXBMZ2/s-curves-for-trend-forecasting
AI is being used to “upscale” the graphics of old video games. I predict this will also be used to colorize and visually sharpen footage from old films and TV shows. The audio could be improved through similar automated processes.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/18/18311287/ai-upscaling-algorithms-video-games-mods-modding-esrgan-gigapixel
Microsoft has unveiled a new version of its XBox One game console that lacks a disc drive and can only download games from the internet. My 2020s predictions are thus closer to reality:
-Video gaming will dispense with physical media, and games will be completely streamed from the internet or digitally downloaded. Business that exist just to sell game discs (Gamestop) will shut down.
-Instead of a typical home entertainment system having a whole bunch of media discs, different media players and cable boxes, there will be one small, multipurpose box
https://qz.com/1597265/the-digital-xbox-one-x-kills-the-used-game-market/
Two very smart dudes discuss Ted Kaczynski’s primitivist, anti-technology ideas and the major flaws in those ideas. For one, forsaking technology is practically impossible since all countries would have to agree to do so. If just one country refused, it would come to possess an insurmountable military technology advantage over the rest of the world and could conquer them and destroy their primitive ways of life.
https://youtu.be/ZmAqKsasNKk
Almost all of the atoms in your body are at least 5 billion years old. Some were created not long (in cosmic scales) after the Big Bang. Ancient artifacts and dinosaur bones are, in a sense, no older than you are.
https://www.quora.com/How-old-are-the-atoms-in-my-body
Inside an advanced, gymnasium-sized lab, engineers can reproduce wildfires and hurricanes, and build small houses that have experimental safety features.
https://www.npr.org/2019/04/02/704854496/step-1-build-a-house-step-2-set-it-on-fire
An analysis of the tactical mistakes the good guys made during the Battle of Winterfell.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/battle-winterfell-why-living-were-slaughtered-4-ways-it-could-have-been-avoided-55067