‘”I don’t think Britain could have won the Falklands conflict without GCHQ,” Prof Ferris told the BBC. He said because GCHQ was able to intercept and break Argentine messages, British commanders were able to know within hours what orders were being given to their opponents, which offered a major advantage in the battle at sea and in retaking the islands.’
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54604895
China makes an “OK” tank for export, called the “VT-4.” I wonder if it will finally replace all the tens of thousands of Cold War-era Soviet tanks still in circulation in the Third World.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/will-chinas-vt-4-tank-become-global-export-success-168233
The Indian Air Force has accepted its first few Rafale fighter planes.
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/indian-air-force-formally-inducts-first-five-rafale-fighter-aircraft
‘Second, the violence in Ladakh has also allowed Beijing to examine the degree of coordination that exists within the Indo-US strategic partnership. As Indian and Chinese soldiers clashed with medieval-style weapons in the Galwan Valley, Beijing paid close attention to how the United States reacted.’
https://www.9dashline.com/article/india-china-rivalry-towards-a-two-front-war-in-the-himalayas
For the first time, China’s two aircraft carriers operated together for a military exercise.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1200053.shtml
‘This August, for instance, the U.S. nuclear-powered carrier Ronald Reagan cruised in company with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer Ikazuchi in the Philippine Sea. Indeed, Japan’s surface fleet is organized into “escort flotillas” precisely to support U.S.-Japanese combat operations.’
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/royal-navy-and-us-navy-are-embracing-interchangeability-could-it-backfire-171371
Warships need near-constant maintenance to stay at sea. Keeping the hull from rusting is an ongoing task, along with watching out for and fixing small leaks inside the ship. This means that, even on 100% automated ships, there will need to be mobile robots that can climb all over the outsides and inside spaces to scrub, paint, and dry surfaces. They would also probably have roles doing repairs caused by combat or by accidents. A big difference between “robot crewman” and humans is that the former won’t need much in the way of self-support infrastructure inside the ship: there won’t need to be bathrooms, kitchens, laundries, rec rooms, bunks, mail rooms, etc. The robots would probably spend all their time at their posts, like you spending your whole life at your work desk, never needing to sleep. This means automated ships could be smaller, simpler, and cheaper than manned ships without sacrificing any firepower, speed, or other capabilities. And in spite of considerable design differences, automated ships would still have internal spaces like rooms and hallways. If you went inside, you’d see robots of some kind moving around, doing tasks.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37094/check-out-how-rusty-and-battered-uss-stout-looks-after-spending-a-record-215-days-at-sea
The U.S. Army is spending $39.7 million to buy helicopter “nano-drones” that have heat-vision.
https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/6/17/flir-systems-awarded-contract-for-nano-drones
‘The μINS is the world’s smallest sensor module of its kind—approximately the size of 3 stacked US dimes. It provides high-quality direction, position, and velocity data for multiple applications by intelligently fusing sensor data from GPS (GNSS), gyros, accelerometers, magnetometers, and a barometric pressure sensor.’
https://insideunmannedsystems.com/worlds-smallest-better-gps-inertial-navigation-system-now-available/
Atlanta police used a helicopter drone to enter an apartment and arrest a murder suspect. The drone’s footage is here: https://www.news.com.au/national/atlanta-police-use-drone-in-arrest-of-suspect-in-actor-thomas-jefferson-byrds-killing/video/a5c7a96e96110bb77c78d1ec3449ec57
In India, a couple gave birth to a boy who had a fatal genetic defect involving his blood. After learning that a bone marrow transplant could permanently cure him, the couple used IVF to create a second child that would be genetically similar enough to the son to serve as a marrow donor. They didn’t want to have the new child for any reason other than to save the first. They gestated the new child–a daughter–and transplanted some of her bone marrow, curing the son. Additionally, to ensure the daughter didn’t carry the same bone marrow defect that the son had, the couple did genetic testing on her while she was still an embryo. This technique, called “preimplantation genetic diagnosis,” is only one step down from genetic engineering. The ethics of this case are indeed questionable.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-54658007
By looking at a person’s genome, we can now guess their height with +/- 4 cm accuracy.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/190124v1
Genetics might explain why men are both more likely to be homeless and more likely to be rich than women.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hbm.25204
‘The successful cloning of DNA collected 40 years is meant to introduce key genetic diversity into the species that could benefit its survival. The zoo said the cloned Przewalski’s horse will eventually be transferred to the San Diego Zoo Safari Park and integrated into a herd of other Przewalski’s horses for breeding.’
https://time.com/5886467/clone-endangered-przewalskis-horse-zoo/
Do all cells have tiny, organic computers in them?
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2008/2008.08814.pdf
Because of the twisted ways in which our cells develop at the embryonic stage, the average person’s facial features are slightly shifted to the left side of his head.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6557252/
A computer simulation suggests that geographical differences caused the rise of many ethnicities and small countries in Europe, while a single ethnic group and country grew to encompass the vast area today known as China. Mountains, peninsulas, islands, and deserts are barriers to human movement and settlement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbGOXnElJeU
A team of aerospace engineers at KLM flew a small-scale model of an interesting-looking “Model V” plane.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8705193/Flying-V-aeroplane-model-gets-test-flight.html
China just launched a copy of America’s secret X-37B space plane.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36202/u-s-confirms-china-has-launched-what-could-be-its-version-of-x-37b-spaceplane
U.S. authorities have approved the first small modular reactor for use.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/first-modular-nuclear-reactor-design-certified-in-the-us/
Solar power is cheaper and has a brighter future (pun) than ever!
https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020
On the set of the sci-fi show The Mandalorian, the sets have replaced green screens with gigantic wraparound TV screens that display high-def footage. The footage of them being manipulated by special effects crewmen is trippy. (I’ve predicted devices like this will become common in U.S. households in the 2030s)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufp8weYYDE8&feature=emb_title
‘No software is yet producing “Whoa, look at that” [chemical] syntheses. But let’s be honest: most humans aren’t, either.’
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/20/the-machines-rise-a-bit-more
Scientists are finding new ways to make bulk quantities of the mind-altering chemicals found in magic mushrooms.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S109671761930401X
Even more importantly, a guy in British Columbia built a working mech warrior in his backyard.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/giant-mechanized-exoskeleton-now-ready-for-pilot-trainees-1.5710431
Using “deepfake” technology, an app can convert images of clothed women into simulated nude images. I don’t have the app, so I can’t say how convincing the results are, but it will become more refined and will lead to another of my predictions coming true this decade.
https://www.cnet.com/news/a-deepfake-bot-on-telegram-is-violating-women-by-forging-nudes-from-regular-pics/
My prediction: ‘[By 2030] “Deepfake” pornography will reach new levels of sophistication and perversion as it becomes possible to seamlessly graft the heads of real people onto still photos and videos of nude bodies that closely match the physiques of the actual people. New technology for doing this will let amateurs make high-quality deepfakes, meaning any person could be targeted. It will even become possible to wear AR glasses that interpolate nude, virtual bodies over the bodies real people in the wearer’s field of view to provide a sort of fake “X-ray-vision.”’
https://www.militantfuturist.com/my-future-predictions-2020-iteration/
Disney made a wonderful, horrifying android that has human-like eye movements and gazes. (To be fair to Disney, human faces also look frightening without their skin.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8_VmWWRJgE
Three months ago, economist Robert Reich made this (totally failed) prediction: “Brace yourself. The wave of evictions and foreclosures in next 2 months will be unlike anything America has experienced since the Great Depression. And unless Congress extends extra unemployment benefits beyond July 31, we’re also going to have unparalleled hunger.”
https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1277641135368724483
This Icelandic study finds COVID-19 has a 0.3% fatality rate, which is close to estimates from other countries.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116
A disease model that has accurately predicted COVID-19 deaths so far now forecasts up to 410,000 U.S. deaths by the end of 2020. Some epidemiologists think it’s too pessimistic.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/09/04/909783162/new-global-coronavirus-death-forecast-is-chilling-and-controversial
Another British COVID-19 prediction falls flat.
From September 22: “If, and that’s quite a big if, but if that continues unabated and this grows doubling every seven days… if that continued you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.”
Reality? In mid-October, Britain is having around 16,000 new cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12734219/experts-blast-50k-covid-cases-day-october-france-spain/
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274
…and another.
‘Researchers in Singapore said that there will be no more cases of the deadly bug in the UK by September 30.’
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11693720/coronavirus-study-predicts-date-uk-will-have-no-cases/
Mexico’s COVID-19 death count is probably twice as high as originally reported.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-mexico-excessdeath-idUSKBN25X00K
In spite of enormous hype and billions of dollars spent, we still haven’t found drugs that are effective against COVID-19.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/27/more-antibody-data
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/16/the-solidarity-data