Musings 9

I think an optimized robot would find it advantageous to retain the ability to extract nutrients and energy from biomatter instead of relying solely on electricity. Robot bodies might retain some organic parts for a digestive tract, or they might have digestive tracts made of soft, synthetic tissues that did the same things as human cells.

The first human-level AI we create will need supercomputer hardware that is vastly more powerful than a human brain. This would be in keeping with the pattern of the first examples of any new technology to be inefficient and barely functional. Consider steam engines. The first, commercially successful one was the Neucomen Engine, and it was huge, inelegant, and had a terrible energy efficiency of 0.5%.

However, it’s also a truism that technological efficiency improves over time. So someday, an AGI with human levels of intelligence will fit on a portable device like a laptop or something even smaller, like a smartphone, and they will be cheap. It’s hard to contemplate a place for humans like us in a world where intelligence is so ubiquitous that it can be thrown in the trash.

Millions of years of evolution have equipped the human brain with an exquisite ability to recognize human faces and their smallest details since we are social animals who must quickly “read” the people around us for the sake of survival. However, that ability only weakly carries over to other species, and many of them “all look the same” to us (think of squirrels or seagulls). Of course, those animals are able to tell each other apart and to recognize subtle indicators of emotion and intent, so there must be a way. Better AI is the obvious solution to this problem. Someday, machines will be able to recognize individual animals as well as they recognize humans, and to understand and communicate with animals much better than we can.

Thanks to satellites and huge numbers of robots, someday our maps of the Earth might be so comprehensive that even individual trees in forests will be cataloged and counted.

Interesting articles, April 2025

‘The current draft, which takes place between April and July, comes despite US attempts to forge a ceasefire in the war.

There was no let-up in the violence on Tuesday, with Ukraine saying that a Russian attack on a power facility in the southern city of Kherson had left 45,000 people without electricity.’
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36718p52eyo

Putin violated his own self-declared Easter ceasefire.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-easter-ceasefire-26e8cc7c934a70c52bd3fab0e58808b8

Trump is learning what Biden and the E.U. knew all along. I hope this diss from Putin makes him so mad that he increases the military aid to Ukraine even higher than it was before.
https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/kremlin-rejects-trumps-peace-plan-after-oil-sanctions-threat-zjwv6r8wm

Czechia has donated the last of its Soviet tanks to Ukraine.
https://defence-blog.com/czech-army-sends-final-soviet-era-tanks-to-ukraine/

Shortages have forced Russian factories to start filling explosive-reactor armor tiles meant for tanks with sand and concrete.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/04/08/russia-admits-sand-and-cement-now-fill-its-tank-armor-gaps/

Humans have proven so vulnerable to small suicide drones that Russia is now routinely sending its soldiers into battle on motorcycles and small vehicles like ATVs to give them a higher chance of outrunning the drones. Russia’s worsening shortage of armored vehicles that normally ferry their troops to the frontline has also forced this change.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-likely-plans-motorcycles-offensives-143921500.html

The IDF has admitted some fault in the shooting deaths of 15 Palestinian medics in Gaza.
https://apnews.com/article/gaza-palestinians-israel-hamas-war-medics-killed-437b6ae1e9cf45b3099134524380f004

‘Israel Craters Runway To Keep Turkey From Taking Over Syrian Airfield’
https://www.twz.com/air/israel-craters-runway-to-keep-turkey-from-taking-over-syrian-airfield

An investigation has found that the drone attack against a U.S. base in Jordan last year succeeded thanks to the tiredness, confusion, and poor training of its lookout personnel.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/confusion-gripped-us-defenders-just-170002662.html

Over the last 45 days, U.S. air and missile strikes have killed hundreds of Houthi fighters and leaders in Yemen, and the operation has cost $1 billion, depleted large stocks of munitions, and involved significant losses of U.S. equipment. It’s surreal this has happened with barely anyone caring on the homefront.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-strikes-kill-hundreds-houthi-182842796.html
https://apnews.com/article/houthis-us-warships-red-sea-e6e97a7131c48640ccf74b1916628234
https://youtu.be/siL417q1BgM?si=F7ORomlwBL7O3cF-

An unprecedent number of B-2 bombers gathered at the Diego Garcia base in a threatening gesture made to pressure Iran into a new nuclear agreement with the U.S.
https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/pentagon-prepares-for-trump-to-go

‘Hegseth Signs Memo Ordering Return To ‘Sex-Neutral Standards’ In The Military’, which will reduce the number of women in U.S. military combat units.
https://thefederalist.com/2025/03/31/hegseth-signs-memo-ordering-return-to-sex-neutral-standards-in-the-military/

The last Nazi election happened in a German enclave in Shanghai in August 1945.
https://youtu.be/spnO0olgUbE?si=DDwSmWjrC68xbqMc

Mao Zedong’s mass murders of landlords and small-time political opponents were orchestrated by countless, local tribunals where average people joined in on the denunciation and violence. Governments can commit evil, but so can your fellow average citizens.
https://youtu.be/Erz59UPIm88?si=DIbrpjNGqDTcDwQR&t=294

Fifty years ago, North Vietnamese forces captured Saigon, sealing the fate of an ally the U.S. had sacrificed so much for.
https://apnews.com/article/saigon-vietnam-war-americans-50-years-f6b8b5823b99038fcdb87bdbcd4c0125

After years of unsuccessfully pressuring Mexico to sell the northern half of its territory to the U.S., America provoked a war so it would have an excuse to conquer it by force. The war was more one-sided than expected, and peace negotiations started after a year and a half.

Because this happened in the pre-telegraph era (1847), President Polk had to send a diplomat, Nicholas Trist, to Mexico City to handle the negotiations, and the two would be cut off from each other, with letters taking weeks to travel back and forth. Before the departure, Polk gave Trist a written list of minimal demands of Mexican territories and optional extra territories, and out of necessity, he was given nearly free reign over the negotiations.

Someone at the State Department leaked a copy of the list to the press, and it appeared in two American newspapers before Trist’s boat even got to Mexico City. Additionally, on August 12, 1847, a U.S. Army Colonel died in U.S.-occupied Veracruz of natural causes. He was carrying a letter from President Polk to Trist which reiterated the list of negotiable and non-negotiable territorial demands. Mexicans stole it and passed the information on to their diplomats who were negotiating the treaty with Trist. They refused to give away any of the land that they knew Polk had told Trist was not essential to take, and it worked.

Those lapses in American diplomatic security are probably the reason why the Baja California peninsula is still part of Mexico.
https://www.cschs.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/History-Resources-Caragozian-Baja-California-3-1-22.pdf

Waymo’s autonomous cars are vastly safer than human-driven cars.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2025/03/after-50-million-miles-waymos-crash-a-lot-less-than-human-drivers/

More videos Chinese robots doing acrobatics.
https://youtube.com/shorts/Y41xQ6u6uuA?si=NEhADnV18qlInvHZ
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/15QVjmAsin/

Several robots ran in a half-marathon in Beijing. I’m reminded of the 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge where no autonomous vehicle was able to complete the race. Look at self-driving cars now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/ce8gz5vl2z1o

Once robot workers are everywhere, this kind of thing will become common.
https://mainstreetmediatn.com/articles/lawrencecountyadvocate/amish-sawmill-rebuilt-in-eight-days/

In 2017, Ben Goertzel predicted “toddler-level AI” would exist by now.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/12/ai-researcher-ben-goertzel-launches-singularitynet-marketplace-and-agi-coin-cryptocurrency.html

The newest LLMs smashed the five-minute Turing Test.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.23674

This is probably the last year you’ll do better on an IQ test than a machine.

‘Do you say “Please” or “Thank you” to ChatGPT? If you’re polite to OpenAI’s chatbot, you could be part of the user base costing the company “Tens of millions of dollars” on electricity bills.’
https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/chatgpt-spends-tens-of-millions-of-dollars-on-people-playing-please-and-thank-you-but-sam-altman-says-its-worth-it

The Trump Administration’s new Secretary of Education, Linda McMahon, gave a speech about the use of artificial intelligence in elementary education where she repeatedly called it “A1”, presumably because she was misreading a script that said “AI.”
https://youtube.com/shorts/xsRUk0dMJu4?si=9a9-ggfhvxyT9-vX

A group of superforecasters and people with deep knowledge of AI released a heavily-researched manifesto called “AI 2027.” They predict that “artificial superintelligence” (ASI) could be created by the end of 2027. If leaders recklessly pursue further AI improvements thenceforth, machines could take over the world and destroy almost all of the human race by the end of 2030. However, responsible development could lead to the inauguration of a new era of abundance, international peace, and space exploration by the same deadline.
https://ai-2027.com/

This essay highlights the flaws in predicting the rise of AGI based on recent trends in how well computers complete tasks that only humans have been able to do. For example, a computer’s ability to finish a complex coding assignment correctly 50% of the time is a weak milestone: it isn’t proof the computer can also do other kinds of tasks, as a true general intelligence would be capable of, and the 50% accuracy rate is much too poor to let it replace a human coder. Something like 99.9% accuracy would be required for that.

Simply put, the tests we’re using to measure improvements in machine intelligence are not good enough to tell us whether they’re on track to achieving “general intelligence” by any given year.
https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/p/measuring-ai-progress

Machines are saving lives by discovering new uses for old, off-patent drugs.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/04/ai-discovers-new-uses-for-old-drugs.html

Elon Musk has been forced to reduce his role in the Trump administration after it alienated so many people that Tesla sales sharply dropped.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/22/business/tesla-reports-disappoint-drop-in-revenue-and-profits/index.html

A new car company called “Slate” wants to build small, utilitarian electric pickup trucks in the U.S. and sell them for only $20,000. Think of it as an “anti-Cybertruck.”
https://www.theverge.com/news/658223/slate-factory-electric-truck-location-indiana

“We’ve not been testing EV batteries the right way,” said Simona Onori, senior author and an associate professor of energy science and engineering in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. “To our surprise, real driving with frequent acceleration, braking that charges the batteries a bit, stopping to pop into a store, and letting the batteries rest for hours at a time, helps batteries last longer than we had thought based on industry standard lab tests.”
https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2024/12/existing-ev-batteries-may-last-up-to-40-longer-than-expected

China might be seizing the global lead in battery technology. If their new products are as advanced as they claim, they will eliminate the remaining disadvantages of electric cars vs. gas-powered cars.
https://www.pcmag.com/news/chinas-ev-tech-leaps-forward-catl-unveils-battery-with-932-mile-range

A Chinese company has used U.S. open source data to build the first thorium reactor. The U.S. can only blame itself for losing its lead. And good for China for investing in this technology that could benefit the whole world.
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/china-builds-world-first-thorium-reactor

In February, political guru James Carville predicted the Trump Administration would “collapse” by early April.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/media/article-14427411/political-guru-predicts-trump-white-house-collapse.html

A SpaceX rocket did the first manned orbit that went over both of the Earth’s poles.
https://www.space.com/space-exploration/human-spaceflight/watch-chilling-1st-views-of-earths-poles-seen-by-spacex-fram2-astronauts-video

An exoplanet was discovered that is the best candidate for alien life we’ve seen so far. Its atmosphere contains gases that, to our knowledge, can only be the chemical byproducts of marine algae.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/you-can-probably-smell-planet-here

Intelligence evolved three separate times on Earth among primates, birds, and octopi. Their brains are very different, and there’s no telling how many different kinds of intelligent minds biology allows.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/intelligence-evolved-at-least-twice-in-vertebrate-animals-20250407/

‘[Mantis shrimp] have up to 16 photoreceptors and can see UV, visible and polarised light. In fact, they are the only animals known to detect circularly polarised light, which is when the wave component of light rotates in a circular motion. They also can perceive depth with one eye and move each eye independently. It’s impossible to imagine what mantis shrimp see, but incredible to think about.’
https://phys.org/news/2013-09-mantis-shrimp-world-eyesbut.html

Scientists have released the most detailed map of a mouse brain ever made.
https://apnews.com/article/brain-map-neurons-alzheimers-autism-1a4e9db0a86c082e10da9c154546c592

A genetically engineered pig kidney functioned inside a woman for 120 days before it had to be removed.
https://apnews.com/article/pig-kidney-xenotransplant-geneedited-9fae82b85c98bf67398d5b4798977c2b

A 7,000-year-old skeleton found in a cave in the Sahara belongs to a literal lost race of humans.
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/7000-year-old-mummy-dna-secret-branch-of-humanity